102 million people of faith, including 32 million regular Christian churchgoers, are expected to abstain from voting in November’s elections. The data comes from Arizona Christian University’s Cultural Research Center, which found significantly lower voter enthusiasm compared to 2020.
The researchers stated, “If that expectation holds true, the impact bodes more poorly for President Trump’s prospects for reelection than for Mrs. Harris’s effort to succeed Joe Biden.”
Dr. George Barna, the research center director, explained, “Christian churchgoing voters have historically supported the more conservative major-party candidate in a presidential race and appear poised to do so again this election cycle — albeit with fewer of them casting a ballot than in the most recent presidential race.”
The report defined people of faith as anyone who associates with a religion including Christianity, Judaism, Mormonism, and Islam. It used census data to project possible totals.
Those who said they aren’t going to vote gave multiple reasons: 48% said they believed the election would be rigged, 57% said they dislike all major candidates, and 50% said the election has become too controversial for their liking.
“In 2020, the margins of victory were a combined 587,000 votes or so in nine battleground states,” Dr. Barna stated. “In that context, the 32 million Christians sitting in the pews each week who refuse to vote are a gamechanger.”
Former President Trump has relied on religious voters in both of his previous elections, especially white evangelical Protestants.
“Christians get out and vote just this time. You won’t have to do it anymore,” Trump told attendees at the Turning Point Believers Summit in July. “Four more years you know what? It’ll be fixed it’ll be fine. You won’t have to vote anymore.”
He even acknowledged that without Christian voters, his chances to win the election might be low.
“I don’t want to scold you, but do you know that Christians do not vote proportionately? They don’t vote like they should,” Trump told the crowd. “They have to vote. If you don’t vote we’re not going to win the election.”
Around 25% of voters in 2020 were white evangelicals, and AP VoteCast data shows 81% of them voted for Trump while 18% supported Joe Biden. That same data shows Catholics were split – 49% for Biden and 50% for Trump.
According to Gallup, about a quarter of voters in 2020 had no religious identity and 65% voted for Joe Biden.
