The global shift toward renewable energy has breathed new life into one of the world’s most significant polluters: coal. As countries ramp up the transition to electric power, the intermittent nature of renewable energy sources like wind and solar has spurred an increase in expected coal use to meet rising electricity demands.
The International Energy Agency (IEA) reports that nearly half of global emissions from fossil fuel combustion can be attributed to coal. However, as experts estimating that each year the equivalent electric consumption of the world’s 10 largest cities is added to global energy demand, coal-fired power is increasingly being used meet this need, despite its environmental impact.
China and India, both major producers of renewable energy infrastructure, are also the leading countries fueling the recent rise in coal use. These nations rely heavily on coal for their energy needs, with the resource providing 60% of China’s electricity and 75% of India’s power.
In response to the increasing use of coal, the IEA has revised its forecast for when global coal demand will peak. Initially projected to occur in 2023, the peak is now anticipated to happen around 2025. However, the agency warns that even if coal demand reaches its peak in the coming years, a sharp decline is unlikely to follow.
Current projections suggest that coal consumption in 2030 will still remain higher than levels seen in 2010. The IEA estimates that coal use in 2030 will be about 6% higher than it was just a year ago. This increase equates to the addition of Japan’s coal consumption, which is the fourth-largest in the world, to the global total.
If current trends persist, the IEA does not expect coal usage to decline to levels seen at the turn of the 21st century until 2050. This timeline could be subject to further revisions if there are delays in energy transition targets or changes in policy and consumption patterns.
