The 2024 presidential race could lead to former President Donald Trump and current Vice President Kamala Harris in the White House if there is a tie in the Electoral College. Looking at a hypothetical scenario, battleground states and states without a “winner-take-all” electoral law could be the deciding factor — particularly Nebraska, a typically Republican state.
In 2020, President Joe Biden won swings states including Michigan, Pennsylvania, Wisconsin, Arizona and Georgia. If Arizona and Georgia switch to supporting Trump in the 2024 election, it brings the total electoral vote to 276 to 262 for Biden.
However, if Nevada switches to support Trump, where he is currently leading in several polls, it then it changes the vote to 270 to 268 — still for Biden.
This is where Nebraska becomes a key state. It is one of two states that doesn’t have a winner-take-all electoral law. It is generally a deep red state, but the district that houses Omaha went blue in 2020, leading to a 4-1 split of delegates. If there is no split in the 2024 election, with Trump getting all five delegates, that would lead to a 269 to 269 tie in the Electoral College.
This hypothetical tie is what would make a Trump-Harris administration possible.
The House of Representatives is then given the task of electing a president. Each state, no matter the amount of representatives, only gets one vote. Whoever reaches 26 votes wins the presidency. Republicans currently have a narrow majority in the House, but there is a chance the 2024 congressional elections could change that majority.
In this hypothetical scenario, if Republicans maintain their majority and vote in Trump, whoever he chose as vice president is not automatically given the position.
The Senate elects a vice president in the case of an electoral tie. Democrats would need to maintain their majority in the November elections, allowing them to elect Harris for the job, resulting in a Trump-Harris White House.
This shows just how close the 2024 election could be and sheds light on how impactful elections outside the presidential one are this year.