Democrats are losing the momentum they had during the summer in the immediate wake of the Dobbs v. Jackson Women’s Health Organization, which effectively overturned Roe v. Wade. Republicans have been able to gain ground on the back of strong messaging on the economy and inflation.
Republicans are heavily favored to win the House. In fact, FiveThirtyEight, an election-tracking website, shows they win the majority of seats 85 out of 100 times in their election simulations.
The race for Senate control, on the other hand, is considered a dead heat, according to FiveThirtyEight, with the GOP winning control in 55 of 100 simulations.
“Historically these should be very bad midterms for Democrats,” David Pakman, host of “The David Pakman Show,” told Straight Arrow News. “When one party takes the White House, in the following midterms, the other party does really well. So the expectation really should have been not what was looking like the most likely outcome in July.”
Since World War II, the president’s party has taken significant losses in the House, with the exception of the 2002 election, following the Sept. 11 terror attacks.
If Republicans gain control, Pakman says it will be detrimental to the Democrats’ agenda.
“Nothing will get done. It will be just overt obstruction,” he added. “Republicans will accurately run on, ‘Biden didn’t get anything done.’”
The economy generally fares better under Democratic presidents, according to analysis from Congress’ Joint Economic Committee, giving hope for the left in the 2024 presidential election.
“There should be a pretty OK economy over the next two years,” Pakman said. “Of course, there’s always predictions of a recession, but we just don’t know right now, if things just sort of regress to the mean, which is the economy does slightly better under Democratic presidents than under Republicans. Democrats should have a case to make to justify further Democratic elections in 2024.”
