Back in February, Rep. Michael Turner, R-Ohio, caught the attention of the public when he indicated Russia was moving toward making a space-based nuclear weapon. Russia denied the claim, dismissing the statements as a ploy to pressure Russia into an arms deal with the West. The mere idea, though, caused some to wonder, “What if Russia actually made space nukes?”
For most people, the idea of deploying nuclear weapons from space or disabling entire satellite networks sounds like something out of a “James Bond” movie. Rest assured, experts in the field share these sentiments.
“It reminds me of ‘GoldenEye,’ right,” said Dr. Tyler White, an associate professor of practice and the director of the National Security Program at the University of Nebraska. “I think this is something that that other outlets just sort of picked up on where they can, they could use an EMP device or something like that to render the electronics, a lot of these satellites, which are oftentimes very fragile instruments in and of themselves, useless.”
The deployment of nuclear devices in space by Russia could take various forms, but nuclear-powered space lasers are not among them — at least not yet. While the concerns raised by these discussions are valid, experts urge caution, emphasizing the importance of basing conclusions on established facts.
“There’s talk, of course, of the Russians violating the Outer Space Treaty,” said Jack Beard, an associate professor of law and the director of the Space, Cyber, and National Security Program at the University of Nebraska. “That’s premature, not only have they not actually done this yet, but the Soviet Union designed a large part of the Outer Space Treaty.”
That is why Russia may choose not to engage in what Rep. Turner suggests it might be planning. Despite the unpredictability often associated with Vladimir Putin, he has a tendency to favor remnants of the Soviet Union’s policies and strategies.
“My sense is that, as a state, that is certainly not in Russia’s interest, and that a lot of their behaviors seem to still be interested in maintaining some of those alliances, particularly with China,” said Elsbeth Magilton, the executive director of Space, Cyber and Security Law at the University of Nebraska.
For most people, the thought of a Russian nuclear threat from space is extremely unsettling. While Magilton shares this concern, she also emphasizes the importance of perspective.
“When you start working in security and in defense, that notion that we were always so secure my whole life kind of goes away, and you realize how tenuous it always is and always has been,” Magilton said. “And somehow that makes you feel a little bit better because you realize that we’ve always been walking this line, and yes, that’s scary. But I’ve been safe up until now. And so maybe it’s not as bleak as it feels in these moments.”
While Turner’s statements captured attention, other developments in the realm of space and Russia, such as plans to collaborate with China on a nuclear power plant for lunar settlements, could have broader implications for U.S. interests, according to Beard.
“Well, competition on the moon for scarce resources is probably a more formidable threat near term,” Beard said. “I mean, we’re talking about putting people there and using the space resources.”
For White, the concerns in space are intertwined with broader geopolitical uncertainties.
“I worry about the future of NATO, which I think has been an unbelievably productive and [an] incredibly important thing in the history of humankind, right,” White said. “I mean, a defensive alliance like this, it’s lasted this long because the challenges posed by China, the challenges posed by Russia, those things become much easier to handle when you are in a reliable relationship with regional partners. And there’s more uncertainty around the future of those relationships, and most of its coming from the United States.”
While there are no easy or immediate answers to many, if not all, of these concerns, Magilton notes that the current cooperation between American astronauts and Russian cosmonauts on the International Space Station is a positive sign.
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