President Biden may be a lame-duck president, but Ukraine is hoping he can fly lots of weapons and aid to the country before it’s time to hand power over to President-elect Donald Trump. Earlier this year, after extensive negotiations, the U.S. Congress approved a $60 billion aid package for Ukraine.
However, at least half of that money went to U.S. companies to replace or replenish weapons and supplies already sent. According to Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy, only about 10% of the promised aid has reached Ukraine — far from ideal when trying to win a war.
Zelenskyy explained his frustration in October in Iceland to a group of reporters when he said, “You do your job. You count on reserves, you count on special brigades, you count on such equipment. And if you’ve got 10% of all the package that has been even voted on already, you know? It’s not funny.”
This issue of overpromising and under delivering isn’t unique to the United States. European nations are falling short in delivering pledged support too.
With the European Union, a promise of delivering 1 million rounds of 155mm ammunition led to only 300,000 actually reaching Ukraine last year.
Hanna Shelest, a senior fellow at the Center for European Policy Analysis and an expert in transatlantic defense, highlighted how such inconsistency makes it challenging for Ukraine to plan military operations.
“It is very difficult to plan your operation when you don’t understand your resources and capabilities. Will you have a 1:10 superiority of Russians in ammunition? Or 1:2 or 1:1?
The same with air defense. If you have only one Patriot system, you’re protecting Kyiv and are more cautious with operations in the south. But if you know you can cover critical infrastructure, you can redeploy mobile brigades to the front lines.”
Hanna Shelest
After congratulating Trump on his victory with a phone call, President Biden focused on accelerating the last of the approved $9 billion in aid to Ukraine before year’s end. There is a strong likelihood that, come January, a second Trump administration may scale back or halt military aid to Ukraine based on the campaign’s rhetoric.
Trump said he could end the war in a day if elected.
“Ukrainians are the first ones who would like this war to finish in 24 hours,” Shelest said. “Unfortunately, as of now, that is possible only under two conditions. Either Ukraine totally surrenders and stops existing as a nation, or Russia just decides to stop this illegal invasion and leaves Ukraine.”
All other variants, according to Shelest, would not end in 24 hours.
Assuming the war will not be over by Jan. 22, 2025, Shelest noted Trump’s unpredictable nature might be beneficial when dealing with a despot like Russian President Vladimir Putin.
“I really would like to see when this first call with Mr. Putin would happen, and what would be the mood after this. Because we have two scenarios: either [Trump] would really trust Mr. Putin and his KGB promises, and would be under the [impression] that he really can push Ukraine just to stop fighting for our existence.
Or Mr. Putin will act as usual, as a KGB guy who likes to offend his vis-a-vis. And knowing the hot temperature of Mr. Trump and how personally he takes such things, [Trump could] decide ‘No, these guys are not [who] I would like to trust. I need quick success. To give quick success, I need a Ukrainian victory. Or least some significant changes at the battlefield.’”
Hanna Shelest
Shelest said looking around the world at current conflicts shows only the war in Ukrainian can result in a quick battlefield victory, if Ukraine is supplied properly.
“Middle East? Definitely not. We understand the complexity of the situation,” Shelest said. “China-Taiwan? Definitely the U.S. is not ready for this battle. So, we are the only one where [President Trump] can demonstrate that he’s stronger than President Biden.”
Should Trump halt U.S. aid, Shelest warned Europe currently lacks the resources to keep Kyiv in the fight. France’s monthly artillery production, for example, matches what Kyiv uses in a single day against Russia. Although some companies are building weapons factories in Ukraine and ramping up production, it will take time to see meaningful increases. And time is not on Ukraine’s side.
Reuters contributed to this report.
