The Baathist regime ruled Syria with brutality since 1963. Then, in the span of a few weeks at the end of 2024, the dictatorship was overthrown, and Bashar al-Assad fled to Russia. The ouster came at the hands of the rebel leader Abu Mohammed al-Jolani and his group, known as Hay’at Tahrir al-Sham.
“If you want to translate it, it’s sort of like ‘the Highest Authority for the Liberation of al’Sham’,” said Avi Melamed, a former Israeli intelligence officer. “Sham is the name that has been known for history to the area that is today known by the name of the Levant. It includes what is today Syria and Lebanon and Israel and Palestinian territories.”
Melamed is now an author and heads an organization called Inside the Middle East.
Al-Jolani has a long history of involvement with Salafi jihadist groups, including ISIS and al-Qaida. During the outbreak of the Syrian Civil War in 2014, however, ISIS and al-Qaida broke ties.
“That was the time, roughly speaking, when Abu Mohammed al-Jolani basically turned towards this al-Qaida side, and started operating in Syria as al-Qaida’s branch under the name of Jabhat al-Nusra, which means the ‘Front of the Supporters’ or the ‘Disciples,’” Melamed said.
Al-Nusra grew into a powerful player in northwest Syria. The entire country is about the size of Washington State, and al-Nusra was carving out an area about the size of Delaware.
Melamed said the group was made up of a number of different fighters and factions from different countries. That conglomeration also brought in spiritual influences from foreign countries. It was during this time period that al-Jolani continued his journey away from the more extreme elements in Syria.
“In 2016, al-Jolani made an interesting move in two aspects,” Melamed said. “First, he announced that he’s detaching from al-Qaida, and basically emphasized that it has been done in mutual consent with the leadership of al-Qaida. And the other thing he did was to expose himself. He actually gave interviews before, but it was anonymous.”
Melamed said the announcement and split from al-Qaida was an interesting early indicator that Jolani was starting to focus more on the Syrian domestic identity rather than jihadism.
This shift wasn’t welcomed by all in al-Nusra, and actually led to some pretty violent internal fighting. But in the end, al-Jolani and his more pragmatic approach won out.
“And so Hay’at Tahrir al-Sham, that actually was formed following this inner split,” Melamed said. “The interesting thing is that one of the significant ramifications of that was he was able, to a large extent, neutralize the influence of these foreign spiritual religious leaders. And that basically enabled him to increase [HTS’] political maneuvering capacities.”
Melamed was asked whether the shift from Jihadi influence to a more Syrian-centric focus suggests that the Jolani government is prioritizing national issues over spiritual Jihadi concerns.
“Well, you know, this is one of the major questions that bothers intelligence agencies and analysts,” he said. “It’s an open question, because on the one hand, we should remember, Jolani is coming ideologically from this camp. I mean, the man has been for the last two decades very much entrenched in a world of Salafi jihadi groups. So it’s definitely, I would say, part of its DNA.
“We should remind ourselves that in the end of the day, those Salafi jihadist groups like al-Qaida or ISIS are brutal, murderous organizations. We are all familiar with the atrocities those groups are involved in. And al-Jolani is coming from that world. Now, on the other hand, we can indicate the milestones where Jolani is actually taking a more, what we could call, a pragmatic approach.”
Melamed points to the stark differences between ISIS’ rule of its short-lived caliphate and al-Jolani’s governing style.
Idlib, in northwest Syria, has been under Jolani’s control for several years now. There, he created the political arm of HTS, called the Syrian Salvation Government, which is markedly more welcoming to progressive ideas in Syria.
For instance, under the SSG, women had many more rights and could even get a university education. A far cry from the brutality with which ISIS ruled, when petty theft could result in the perpetrator losing their hands and beheadings were quite common.
“Information that came from Idlib, which I evaluate as reliable, basically indicates that, at the end of the day, it was and is an Islamic-affiliated government,” Melamed said. “However, it could also be at the same time characterized as one that is not totally authoritarian; in the sense that it is leaving enough space of maneuvering to decide what are the things that it’s important for them to insist and to dictate, and what are the things that they don’t necessarily think are important and insist to dictate.”
In almost every interview since he seized power, al-Jolani talks about the future of Syria and how he wants to set up a government free from the brutality of the past and focused on the needs of Syria’s people.
He seems to be making headway in some Western circles too. The U.S. government canceled the $10 million bounty on al-Jolani’s head. In another sign of separation from past events, Jolani also changed his name. He dropped his wartime moniker and instead reverted back to his birth name, Ahmed al-Sharaa.
Whether it’s all enough to earn him legitimacy on the world stage, and maybe more importantly to fellow Syrians, remains to be seen. But, if we believe what al-Sharaa told the BBC, a more diversified, free, and economically robust Syria may not be the stuff of fantasy anymore.
“The Syrian population lived together for thousands of years,” al-Sharaa said during a December 2024 interview. “We’re going to discuss all of it. We’re going to have dialogue and make sure everyone is represented. The old regime always played on sectarian divisions. But we won’t.”
And it will all take time. Al-Sharaa said it could be four years before Syria’s new constitution is written and a permanent government can be established.
