From a voter’s perspective, polling in the days leading up to elections may seem significantly flawed as of late. Experts say the numbers support this hypothesis. During the 2016 and 2020 presidential races, state-level polling was inaccurate, according to the American Association for Public Opinion Research. National polling also featured greater error than usual.
In fact, according to the AAPOR evaluation of 2020 general election polls, error “was the highest in 40 years for the national popular vote and the highest in at least 20 years for state-level estimates of the vote in presidential, senatorial, and gubernatorial contests.”
Courtney Kennedy, the Pew Research Center Director of Survey Research, said there are several reasons for polling error, but one factor was unique to these two races: former President Donald Trump.
“Trump provided explicit cues to his supporters that polls were ‘fake’ and intended to suppress votes,” the AAPOR report said. “These statements by Trump could have transformed survey participation into a political act whereby his strongest supporters chose not to respond to polls.”