Could former President Donald Trump’s indictments be hurting his prospects in the 2024 general election? Polls indicate they may be.
It’s clear former President Trump is dominating the Republican primary. A recent CBS News poll found he is supported by 62% of likely GOP primary voters, Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis was a distant second at 16%. The Real Clear Politics average of polls shows Trump gained support around the time of his first indictment over hush money paid to porn star Stormy Daniels.
“Any time they file an indictment, we go way up in the polls. We need one more indictment to close out this election,” Trump told supporters at an Alabama fundraiser Aug. 4.
But those surveys focus on Republican primary voters, or likely Republican primary voters. Polls that use a broader representative sample show the indictments are hurting Trump’s chances with Americans as a whole.
A new Politico Magazine/Ipsos poll that surveyed Republicans, Democrats and Independents found that more than half the country (51%) thinks Trump is guilty of the alleged crimes in the federal 2020 election subversion case.
According to Politico, 61% said the trial should take place before the 2024 general election. 44% of respondents said the outcome would have no impact on their likelihood of supporting Trump. But for those who said the result would inform their vote, 32% said a conviction would make them less likely to support Trump — including 34% of independents.
An AP-NORC poll also found support for Trump is much weaker with the general electorate. According to the poll, which was conducted in mid-August, 74% of Republicans said they would support Trump in the general election, but 53% of Americans said they would definitely not support him if he’s the Republican nominee and 11% said they would probably not support him.
Some of Trump’s primary opponents are using the indictments and his actions surrounding the 2020 election to make the case against nominating him.
“Whether or not you believe that the criminal charges are right or wrong, the conduct is beneath the office of President of the United States,” former Gov. Chris Christie (R-NJ) said at the Milwaukee debate.
We will start to get concrete answers about Trump’s standing with primary voters Jan. 15, 2024 during the Iowa Caucuses.
