Yevgeny Prigozhin’s plan to bring his mercenaries to Moscow was the biggest public threat to Vladimir Putin’s 23-year reign in Russia. Moscow tried to convey a sense of normalcy Monday, but questions remain about what exactly happened, and what happens next.
For starters, there are questions regarding what exactly Prigozhin led, an attempted mutiny or a coup?
A coup, short for coup d’état, is a sudden, violent or unlawful seizure of power. A mutiny is an open rebellion against the proper authorities, usually by soldiers and sailors against their officers.
So, this was a mutiny. The Wagner PMC Group’s said from the start he wanted to oust Russia’s top military leaders, Defense Minister Sergei Shoigu and Russian Army Chief of General Staff Valery Gerasimov.
There is a long-documented feud between Prigozhin and the leadership of Russia’s armed forces.
Before his mercenaries reached Moscow, though, Prigozhin negotiated a deal with Aleksandr Lukashenko, the president of Belarus. The deal ended the mutiny almost as quickly as it began.
The exact terms of the agreement Lukashenko brokered still aren’t known, apparently not even by some who made it. Saturday, June 24, Russia said it was dropping all charges against Prigozhin. The following Monday, the government reported there was still an investigation looking into the mercenary’s mutiny.
What is tentatively known is that Wagner fighters will be given amnesty and most incorporated into the Russian military.
Prigozhin, who was cheered when he left Rostov, is now exiled to Belarus. The first image of Prigozhin since the mutiny was posted Monday along with an audio recording.
According to translators, Prigozhin said he started his march due to “injustice.” He said his fighters showed no aggression but defended themselves when Russian helicopters attacked. Wagner forces shot down six Russian helicopters and a spy plane during its lightning-fast rebellion.
And that will benefit Ukraine. Russian air superiority is one of the main factors thwarting Ukraine’s counteroffensive. With fewer Russian helicopters protecting ground assets, Ukraine reported it made fairly significant gains over the weekend in the Donbas, where Bakhmut is located.
It should be noted this was also the primary area of operation for most Wagner fighters. Those forces were pulled out of the fight when their leader ordered a march on Moscow.
The immediate impacts of Prigozhin’s mutiny on the war in Ukraine may pale in comparison to the long-term impacts though. Wagner fighters are some of the most experienced soldiers fighting for the Russian side, and there are clearly questions of loyalty after so many participated in a mutiny. Also, some elements within the Russian armed forces joined with the mutineers, not great for a country trying to boost military morale in the face of mounting battlefield deaths.
The fallout from the weekend mutiny is still being sorted through, but one thing is clear. Putin’s stranglehold on power isn’t as solid as he projected, and even the Russian people now know that.
Reuters contributed to this report.
