Russia is still reeling from the attack at a concert that killed more than 130 people. ISIS-K, a wing of the Islamic State, claimed responsibility for the attack which also injured more than 180 people. However, Moscow is doing its best to tie Ukraine to the attacks and drum up more support for its war effort.
Russian forces launched a massive volley of missiles and drones against Ukraine following the terrorist attack, seemingly in reprisal. U.S. intelligence agencies said they have proof confirming the ISIS-K claim, but it’s expected Putin and propagandists in Russian state media will still push the Ukraine narrative as a means to keep up recruiting numbers.
Ukraine started warning weeks ago that Russia was preparing for a large summer offensive. Two days before the attack at the concert hall, Russia’s defense minister, Sergei Shoigu, announced the formation of two new armies this year.
The British Ministry of Defence said it’s not clear what type of units will make up the new armies, but they will likely include mechanized, armored, artillery and logistics brigades.
The U.K. said Russia’s recruiting efforts continue to be successful. So, the new armies shouldn’t have a staffing problem. But if recent history holds true, it’s likely the new armies will run into the same problems as the current armies. Specifically, the U.K.’s Defence Intelligence agency cites limited training, an over-reliance on what they’re politely calling legacy vehicles, and a wealth of infrastructure issues that are creating resource problems.
Russian equipment losses just passed the 15,000 mark, meaning Russian forces are driving around decades-old tanks, trucks and armored vehicles. All of these don’t perform nearly as well as more modern models but can still be effective in large enough numbers.
While Ukraine’s preparations for the pending Russian offensive continue all along the front lines, in the air, Ukrainian drone crews are finding new success against Russian oil refineries. Since the start of the year, there were attacks on at least seven facilities.
The forced shutdowns amount to a nearly 7% drop in daily output. Despite international sanctions, oil continues to be a primary source of income for Moscow, which is why so many military analysts call the refineries legitimate targets.
Russia said it would put Pantsir air defense systems around refineries to protect them, but that means fewer air defense systems elsewhere. Like shipyards, where Ukrainian long-range cruise missiles continue to add to the number of Russian ships at the bottom of the Black Sea.
A new rail line might make Russia’s Black Sea fleet unnecessary, at least in terms of resupply. Vladimir Putin recently said a new 60-kilometer stretch of railroad was just completed between Kolosky and Kamianka, in occupied Ukraine. That rail line is supposed to tie into existing rail lines that lead to Melitopol in southern Ukraine and another that leads to Rostov-on-Don in southern Russia.
Rostov is the capital of Russia’s Southern Military District. It’s also the main hub for resupply for troops in southern Ukraine and occupied Crimea. According to Putin, this rail line will eventually extend down into Crimea to Sevastopol, where the Russian Black Sea fleet is stationed.
The new railroad is meant as a backup to the Kerch Bridge supply, which goes from Russia into occupied Crimea from the east. Like the Kerch bridge, the rail line will be a primary target for Ukraine’s armed forces.
During the Ukrainian counteroffensive in 2023, Ukraine’s primary goal was to cut off Russian troops in southern Ukraine, by pushing down from their territory to the Sea of Azov. Ukraine also heavily attacked the Kerch Bridge in an effort to trap the Russian forces that are in southern Ukraine and occupied Crimea.
Why do they want to do that? Well, for many military analysts, that’s the best way for Ukraine to win. If Ukraine can create and hold areas that would cut off resupply to large numbers or Russian troops and civilians in Crimea, then Ukraine has the best bargaining chip possible to force possibly a Russian withdrawal from occupied territories, and potentially the end of the war.
Reuters contributed to this report.
