Russian forces suffered an average of 1,271 soldiers killed or wounded each day, surpassing the previous high of 1,262 daily casualties recorded in May 2024. The U.K.’s Ministry of Defence attributed the rise to intensified fighting in the Kharkiv and Kursk regions and along the front lines.
“The increase in the casualty rate since May 2024 is almost certainly due to the extension of the combat zone to include both Kharkiv and Kursk military operations, and increased intensity along the frontline,” the Ministry of Defence said.
Russia launched an invasion into Kharkiv from its Belgorod region in May, while its forces have faced heavy losses attempting to fend off Ukraine’s advances in Kursk. September also marked the fifth consecutive month in which Russian casualties averaged more than 1,000 soldiers per day.
Analysts have connected the high casualty rates to Russia’s use of mass infantry tactics, often referred to as “meat wave” assaults, where large numbers of troops are sent to overwhelm Ukrainian defenses.
John Foreman, Britain’s former defense attaché in Moscow, noted that these tactics are likely to continue.
“I expect Russia to continue to grind forward, probing for weakness. Very grim. We can’t expect a Russia pause over the winter,” Foreman said.
The Ministry of Defence estimates that Russia has lost nearly 650,000 soldiers since its invasion of Ukraine began in February 2022. Casualties averaged between 172 and 559 soldiers per day in 2022 and peaked at 967 in 2023.
“Russian forces will highly likely continue to attempt to stretch Ukrainian forces by utilizing mass to overwhelm defensive positions,” the Ministry of Defence stated.
Despite these high losses, Russian forces have made slow but steady gains in eastern Ukraine. Most recently, Russia captured the town of Vuhledar in Donetsk Oblast after several failed attempts. This marked Russia’s most significant battlefield victory since it took control of Avdiivka in February.
The capture of Vuhledar is seen as an important victory for Kremlin forces, and analysts warn that Russia could use the town as a staging ground for further offensives aimed at securing other Ukrainian strongholds to the west.
While there has been no official announcement of a second wave of mobilization, Russian President Vladimir Putin has taken unconventional measures to boost manpower.
On Oct. 2, Putin signed a law allowing defendants to avoid criminal liability if they join the army, with the aim of recruiting up to 40% of the nearly 60,000 prisoners held in pre-trial detention centers.
As winter approaches, experts believe there is little chance of a pause in Russian military operations, meaning these high casualty rates are likely to continue.
