Key retirements could make it more difficult for the Democratic Party to maintain its Senate majority after the 2024 election. Sen. Kyrsten Sinema, I-Ariz., who caucuses with Democrats, announced she won’t seek reelection in November. The race for her seat is one of four elections where the incumbent is stepping down in a state where Republicans have a legitimate chance to flip.
Democrats currently have a 51-49 majority in the chamber. If they lose one seat, the majority will be decided by the vice president. If they lose two seats, Republicans take the majority.
“We can’t take it for granted,” Sen. Dick Durbin, D-Ill., said. “We have to work hard in all those states and others. But I think the Republicans would be naive to take it for granted as well. I think the voters are taking a look at these candidates and I think we’ll have quality people that we’ll field.”
“Good candidates, good campaigns and a good strong pull at the top of the ticket. But I’m optimistic,” Sen. Josh Hawley, R-Mo., said of Republican’s potential path to victory. “I think we’ll take back the Senate.”
The Arizona race appears to be between Democratic Congressman Ruben Gallego and former Republican gubernatorial candidate Kari Lake who lost in 2022. Polls show Lake is leading Gallego by three to four points.
In West Virginia, Democratic Sen. Joe Manchin is retiring and Republican Gov. Jim Justice is running to replace him. Polls show Justice is more than 30 points ahead of his next opponent and has a favorability rating of 73%.
In Michigan, Democratic incumbent Debbie Stabenow is retiring. The race to replace her is pretty full. There are three Democrats and 10 Republicans in the primary that takes place in April. There are already two independents in November’s general election.
The big surprise challenge is in Maryland, where registered Democrats outnumber Republicans two to one. Sen. Ben Cardin, D, is retiring and a win would normally be a layup for Democrats. Former Republican Gov. Larry Hogan — who served two terms and left office with 77% approval rating — jumped in the race.
Sen. Chris Van Hollen, D-Md., said he’s confident the eventual Democratic nominee for the seat will prevail in Maryland.
“I don’t discount the fact that it will be a competitive race,” Van Hollen said. “It will be a very expensive race with the former governor in. But Marylanders will understand very clearly that a vote for Larry Hogan is a vote to put the MAGA right-wing Republicans into control in the United States Senate.”
There are two more close races for Democrats in which the incumbent is running for reelection.
“It’ll be a close, tough race,” Pennsylvania Sen. Bob Casey, D, told NBC News.
In Montana, Sen. Jon Tester, D, is just two points ahead of his Republican challenger, veteran businessman Tim Sheehy.
