Trump 2.0 could be very different for Israel and its wars

Israel Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu fired Minister of Defense Yoav Gallant in early November. The move means there’s no real opposition left to Netanyahu in the governing coalition, leaving many Israeli citizens to wonder when the wars in Gaza and Lebanon will end.

Avi Melamed is a former Israeli intelligence officer and hostage negotiator. He’s an author now, and Straight Arrow News has spoken to him several times over the course of the war in Gaza.

He correctly predicted some of the actions taken by the Israeli military, including the measured responses to Iran’s two missile attacks. Concerning Gallant’s firing, Melamed said it didn’t really surprise anyone in Israel.

“I think that they both understood that their forced cooperation, to a large extent, has come to an end,” Melamed said. “They have different political agendas. So Netanyahu fired Gallant, and I think that Gallant, basically from a political perspective, gained credibility in Israeli public opinion. He comes across as one that actually puts the best of the nation above any other calculation.”

There is growing sentiment in Israel that Netanyahu is keeping the wars going for political reasons, such as wanting to avoid an election that might see him replaced. Others say the prime minister wants to keep the focus on war-fighting, and not how the war started.

“That criticism is not new,” Melamed said. “It’s coming from different circles, not only the public realm, of course, but it comes from circles that were involved, or are involved, in the negotiations. Particularly the security and intelligence establishment that openly stated, more than once, there could be a window for a deal for releasing hostages, and Netanyahu was actually damaging or sabotaging or stopping the process. Depends who defines what. It seems like all in all, when you hear all these voices, it seems like those allegations are not baseless.”

According to The Guardian, after being sacked by Netanyahu, Gallant told some of the families of hostages still being held in Gaza there was “nothing left for the IDF to do.” From a military perspective, Gallant said the Israeli military’s mission was over, and it’s now inappropriate for Israel to still have troops there.

Militarily, Melamed would tend to agree with Gallant. Hamas is significantly weakened and can’t dictate any sort of agenda, not like it was able to for the last 40 years, and certainly not like it was able to on Oct. 7.

“But again, if you are going from a political perspective — and particularly I’m talking about the ultra-nationalist right wing in the government — would obviously like to see the continuation of the war,” Melamed said. “Because they are dreaming of the day they will be able to reestablish Israeli settlements. Netanyahu, from a political perspective, has an interest in the endurance of the war, as of now, until some new circumstances will arise when Netanyahu will decide that now it’s time to announce triumph, ultimate triumph and ultimate victory.”

But will the far right’s move be embraced by Israel’s allies? Specifically, the U.S.? Israeli Finance Minister Bezalel Smotrich did say now that President-elect Trump is set to take the White House again, Israel should look to extend its sovereignty to the West Bank. And there are growing calls in Israel’s far right to annex the Gaza Strip as well.

Melamed said there’s reason to believe, however, a second Trump term won’t be a carbon copy of the first.

“Because it’s about Trump’s legacy. And I think that the right wing leaders in Israel should listen very carefully to what he said this time,” Melamed explained, “[Trump] said, ‘I’m not going to start wars, I’m going to end wars.’ Which is a very strong message. It didn’t come from Trump in the previous time. And so I would definitely expect that his policy, vis-à-vis the whole issue, will be much more balanced. Including a veto on any idea of Israeli sovereignty in the West Bank, in the areas that are clearly not supposed to be under any kind of Israeli sovereignty.”

Melamed said Trump will likely want an extension of the Abraham Accords, with more nations normalizing relations with Israel and a distinct focus on Saudi Arabia. But there again, the Saudis won’t come to the negotiating table while the war in Gaza is ongoing.

So, while Israel, and its government, may be readying for a return to the right in the U.S., Jerusalem probably shouldn’t expect a blank check or free pass from Trump.