The United States and China share a relationship that can be described as “complicated.” Their economies are deeply intertwined and interdependent. According to a Government Accountability Office report, nearly a third of foreign students and scholars in the U.S. are from China, with some involved in developing defense-related technologies.
At first glance, the two countries might appear to be allies. However, a broader perspective reveals a more complex picture. Secretary of the Air Force Frank Kendall highlighted this complexity.
“China is aggressively preparing to defeat America’s ability to project power in the Western Pacific,” Kendall said.
Kendall’s remarks were echoed at the Air Force Association’s Air, Space, Cyber 2024 conference, where experts discussed the threat of China.
Brendan Mulvaney, the director of the China Aerospace Studies Institute at the National Defense University, emphasized the challenge of understanding China’s approach.
“They’re not approaching these things as the United States military would,” Mulvaney said. “They simply want to keep us out long enough to accomplish their goals.”
While Taiwan is often seen as a potential flashpoint, Kevin Pollpeter, the director of research at the China Aerospace Studies Institute at Air University, expressed concern about space. He noted that China doubled its number of satellites in orbit between 2019 and 2021, raising the stakes for potential conflict in space.
Wayne Ulman, the national intelligence manager for East Asia, warned of the dangers of miscommunication.
“We’re not good at reading their signals, and they’re not particularly good at reading ours,” Ulman said. This could lead to accidental conflict.
Cyber warfare remains a significant threat, with China being the most active and persistent cyber threat to U.S. government, private-sector, and critical infrastructure networks, according to the Cybersecurity and Infrastructure Security Agency.
Mulvaney also pointed out that since Xi Jinping took office in 2012, China has increased the size of its rocket force by 33%. This includes a mix of medium-range, intercontinental and short-range missiles, both nuclear and non-nuclear.
The U.S.-China relationship is indeed complex, with multiple layers of economic interdependence, military competition, and potential for miscommunication. Understanding and navigating this relationship remains a critical challenge for policymakers.
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