February marks the second anniversary of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine. When Russian troops advanced into Ukraine on Feb. 24, 2022, few could predict how the war would turn out, and probably fewer could predict the stalemate two years in.
For Ukraine, victory means one thing: complete Russian withdrawal. For Putin, however, Russia’s version of victory is more complex.
In this episode of Weapons and Warfare, host Ryan Robertson spoke with Maj. Marnix “Max” Provoost of the Royal Netherlands Army. Provoost works as a PhD researcher at the Netherlands Defence Academy, and he’s the published author of “What is Russia’s Victory of Ukraine?”
“You have like four possible outcomes in a war, and the highest achievable is a political victory,” Provoost said. “Below that lies a military victory, below that lies a military defeat, and below that lies a political defeat.”
Though the outcomes may seem straightforward, Provoost argues that they aren’t, and that complexity may be exactly what Russia is angling for.
“Because if you suffer a military defeat, but you are still able to create a political narrative, that implies a political victory, then it’s that last thing that counts the political victory,” Provoost said.
On the surface, the war looks like it revolves around Russia reclaiming something it once owned. Provoost says Putin’s actions aim to prevent Russians from seeing what a free Ukraine would look like.
“If the Russian people see that adopting a different political and economic system can bring them more freedom and prosperity and that they aren’t necessarily deterministically bound by a narrative that the people suffer and serve the state, then that might cause some instability in Russia because people start questioning the Russian authoritarian rule and the oligarchic economy that is currently active in the country,” Provoost said.
At least for now, Putin has gotten what he wanted to some extent: delaying the growth of democracy in Ukraine.
“Ukraine, I think, as written down in its constitution that as long as the country is in a state of emergency, or in fact, at war, no democratic elections should be held,” Provoost said. “And there was a lot of discussion by the end of last year, whether Zelenskyy should hold elections or not, in the end, I think he decided not to do so.”
While Ukraine supporters push for more aid to the country, Provoost suggested there may be a better path to victory.
“Strategy implies letting Ukraine become a true democracy against all odds, but showing that despite Russia’s efforts, they still can hold elections, they still have a true democracy with opposition, et cetera,” he said. “And the other thing is to get that economy viable again. And that means that you need to get Ukrainian export through the Black Sea open again.”
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