As the race for president enters its final few weeks, it is tough to tell who is actually ahead. The race appears to be very tight, with different numbers giving different results depending on which site you visit.
In fact, Vice President Kamala Harris’ official campaign website opens with the declaration, “WE ARE FALLING BEHIND.” It shows a pie graph with former President Donald Trump ahead 50% To 49%, with no attribution. Instead, there is a statement that time is running out and there is also an appeal for donations to Harris campaign.
On Nate Silver’s well known 538 website, he asks the question “Who Is Favored To Win The 2024 Presidential Election?” Noting that 538 uses polling, economic and demographic data to come up with outcomes, Harris wins 55 times out of 100. Trump wins 45 times out of 100.
At RealClearPolitics, which is an aggregate of numerous polls, there has been a shift. This week it pushed Michigan into the Trump column. Last week, it moved Pennsylvania to Trump when they model without having toss-up states. As a result, RealClearPolitics has Trump currently winning the election with 302 electoral votes. Harris winds up with 236.
On Friday, Oct. 11, The Wall Street Journal (WSJ) came out with a poll on the battle for seven swing states. The poll called the races in those states tied.
The same WSJ poll shows voters prefer Trump on the key issues of the economy and border security. However, Harris still has a path to victory in the Electoral College, according to that poll.