How much will the death of Iranian President Ebrahim Raisi impact the country’s — and the region’s — political and militaristic landscape? It depends on who you ask.
To understand what Raisi’s death means, it’s important to understand his role as president. He didn’t lead Iran; the supreme Ayatollah does.
“He does not make that kind of strategic decision as to what to do, who to attack, or to make a deal in terms of supplies, weapons, etc.,” said Professor Alon Ben-Meir, a senior fellow at the World Policy Institute and author. “That comes from Khamenei. [Raisi was] the one who [had] to execute the orders he [received] from Ayatollah Khamenei. This is not just with him, but with any president before him as well. So, that is the way it works in Iran, and I think it’s going to work that way in the future.”
Since Raisi wasn’t really running the country, Ben-Meir said it will keep running mostly the same way, both internally and externally.
“That’s not going to change. Iran’s support of its proxies, its so-called Axis of Resistance, be that the Houthis, Hezbollah, Hamas, will continue,” he said.
While Raisi didn’t get the final call on most major decisions, he made enough calls to create quite the reputation inside Iran. He was called the “Butcher of Tehran” for his wide use of public hangings to discourage dissent against the regime.
“It’s not like in the Old West, where you’d be standing on a platform and you’d drop and it would break your neck and kill you almost instantly,” said J. Michael Waller, a senior analyst for strategy at the Center for Security Policy. “The Iranian regime’s form of hanging is to put a noose around your neck and then lift you up slowly by a crane for a really long and really painful death, and do it in a very public way. Even doing it at traffic circles, so everybody driving by would see. So he was a really feared and hated figure inside Iran. So there aren’t a lot of tears being shed for him.”
While many inside Iran may be celebrating Raisi’s death, his passing outside of the country is, to the dismay of many, being honored as if Ebrahim Raisi was a renowned world leader — and not the man responsible for the death of thousands of people.
“It’s really pathetic,” Waller said. “You’ve got, you know, from the European Union to NATO to the State Department, even our ambassador at the United Nations Security Council, stood up with everybody else in homage to Raisi after word of his death. There are ways to be diplomatic about it. We don’t have to be obnoxious, we don’t have to be celebrating it. But we don’t have to be standing up and celebrating a moment of silence at the U.N., and issuing condolences from the State Department.”
As far as how Iran’s government will move on from Raisi, one of the country’s vice presidents was named acting president, and new elections are being planned. However, the real path to power in Iran is the one that leads to succeeding Ayatollah Khamenei. Raisi was on the short list of names to do that; the list is now down to just one —the Supreme Leader’s son, Mojtaba.
“Apparently, he’s been groomed to be a successor at one point or another,” Ben-Meir said. “Obviously Raisi was sort of on the front line as far as Khamenei was concerned, Ayatollah Khamenei was concerned. So I think the chances are that when Ayatollah Khamenei dies, when he passes away, that his son may very well take over.”
If Mojtaba becomes the next supreme leader, that will create tension within the Iranian government, because the regime overthrew a monarchy when it came to power in 1979 and has been strongly advocating against that form of government ever since. That tension, instability and uncertainty could create a catalyst for change.
According to Waller, on the outside, there is Crown Prince Reza Pahlavi, the son of the Shah, who had been ousted decades earlier. He has a growing popular following inside Iran as a unifying figure, much like the British monarchy — not a powerful king or monarch, but a representative one to unify the whole country.
Pahlavi has become very active and outspoken, calling for the army to stand down any operations to harm the public and even for the army to go after the Iranian Revolutionary Guard. This is significant, as Pahlavi has a legitimate following and is calling for action. Waller said this could lead to a major succession crisis inside Iran.
The AP contributed to this report.
