Israel’s military campaign against Hamas in Gaza could be wrapped up in a matter of weeks. The Israel Defense Forces’ (IDF) campaign against Hezbollah, however, may just be getting started.
Whenever people talk about conflict or wars in the Middle East, it’s always hard to boil down thousands of years of history into a news story. So, let’s just focus on some of the more recent events which have led to this moment.
On Oct. 8, 2023, a day after Hamas terrorists swarmed southern Israel, killing hundreds and kidnapping dozens, Hezbollah increased its daily barrage of rocket, missile and mortar strikes on northern Israel. Hezbollah stated this was a signal of solidarity with Hamas, its fellow Iranian-backed allies.
Thousands of people were evacuated from northern Israel due to these strikes, forced out of their homes for months. Hezbollah’s attacks also ignited wildfires, scorching fields and homes. Israel typically responds with targeted strikes against Hezbollah’s weapons caches, command posts and, when known, Hezbollah’s leadership.
“This is a dynamic that could ultimately result in a massive burst spinning out of control,” said Avi Melamed, a former Israeli intelligence officer and negotiator during the First and Second Intifadas.
Now a political adviser and author, Melamed noted that neither Israel nor Hezbollah wants an all-out war, but both sides are bracing for that outcome.
“The dynamic of this endless, never-ceasing, skirmish of punches almost every day since Oct. 8 — that all has its own dynamic, resulting in more and more escalation,” Melamed said. “There has been, clearly, red lines that both sides were very cautious, cautious and careful not to cross. But then on the other hand, you may find, for different reasons, you find yourself dragged into a whirlpool of dynamics that basically could result in a slippery-slope towards spinning out of control. A process that could result, at the end of the day, in all-out war.”
Melamed described Hezbollah as Iran’s favorite terrorist proxy, receiving hundreds of millions of dollars annually in financial and military support. This support has enabled Hezbollah to oust Lebanon’s internationally recognized government, turning the country into a failed state.
“The Lebanese themselves are saying openly, ‘We are kidnapped by Hezbollah and we are powerless to change the situation,’” Melamed said.
He explained that Iran needs a strong proxy in Lebanon for two main reasons. First, so Iran can tighten its grip on the country, securing a foothold along the Mediterranean coast and a staging ground to launch attacks against Israel.
“The other objective of Hezbollah is to be a counterpart of deterrence against any attempt of Israel, or the West, to attack Iran’s strategic interests,” Melamed added.
Hezbollah, Hamas and other Iranian proxies form the so-called Axis of Resistance. Melamed emphasized that this Axis is committed to the destruction of Israel, willing to put innocent people in harm’s way to achieve their goal.
“In the Western thought, you are not going to eliminate somebody else,” Melamed said. “You may have a dispute, but you don’t vow to eliminate somebody else. In the Western mindset the government’s role, first and foremost, is to take care of the well-being of its people. Not to sacrifice these people to the agenda, on the altar of whatever the agenda is. These are two things that the Western mind failed to understand. Because it’s totally alien to the mindset of the West. But it has to be said. It has to be understood,”
As of publication, both Israel and Hezbollah appear poised to engage in a major conflict, the scale of which hasn’t been seen in southern Lebanon since the 2006 Israeli invasion. Melamed warned that Iran and its Axis of Resistance are patient, committed, well-funded and increasingly well-armed. To defeat Iran and its Axis, he said, their notion of “resistance” must be defeated as well.
“They are not going to compromise their ideology and understanding that they are working according to a long-term master plan,” Melamed said. “That master plan keeps, all the time, their eye on the target. It may have some diversions. It may have some slow-downs, but they have their eyes fixed on the target. Those who want to prevent this path, need to be willing to act proactively, decisively to totally change that path. Now, there are potentially two ways to do it. One is a non-violent way and the other one is violent. The non-violent way is not working.”
Reuters contributed to this report.