It’s been one year since Russia surprised the world by invading Ukraine and it doesn’t look like the conflict is going to end anytime soon. Now Ukrainian forces are facing a new adversary: warmer weather.

Fighting in freezing conditions has had its own problems, of course, but as Straight Arrow News contributor Peter Zeihan explains, warm weather means a muddier battlefield that hurts the Ukrainians more than the Russians.

Excerpted from Peter’s Feb. 7 “Zeihan on Geopolitics” newsletter:

Today we’re diving into some operational updates from the Ukraine War. First and foremost, daytime temps this winter have rarely dropped below freezing; when they do, it has not been for long enough periods for the ground to freeze. So that means local forces will be rolling around in the pigsty for at least a few more months.

Unfortunately for Ukraine, the only viable way to stop the Russians is to start killing more of them …and if they can’t get their tanks mobile, that won’t be happening any time soon. These muddy conditions enabled the Russians to throw wave after wave of troops at targets (like in the Battle of Bakhmut) until they could win and move on.

This is, and always has been, Russia’s war to lose. Come May (or whenever the ground decides to firm up), we will see large-scale offensives from both sides that start to shift the tides of this war.