Polls have now closed in Ohio and North Carolina, two states with very interesting Senate races and a number of close House races. Florida is an early count state. We can predict that Ron DeSantis will win the governor’s race and Marco Rubio the Senate race. Both are likely to have margins in the high single digits or low double digits. The early vote has been largely counted in Miami-Dade, long a Democrat stronghold in Florida. But it now appears that both DeSantis and Rubio will carry the county, pointing to a significant shift in Hispanic voting patterns toward the Republicans.

We are closely watching four House races where the polls closed at 7 p.m.: Indiana 1, Virginia 2, 7, and 10. They are interesting because they represent a strategy by Republicans to run a more diverse set of candidates. In Indiana, a Black woman and veteran is the Republican nominee against a White male. In Virginia, all three incumbent Democrats are White women. The Republicans are running one White woman, one Hispanic woman, and one Vietnamese-born man against them.