Ukraine’s spring offensive against Russia could begin at any moment but the Russians have plans of their own. Straight Arrow News contributor Peter Zeihan expects Moscow to turn away from Ukraine’s power grid and focus its attention to agricultural infrastructure. He warns that the Russians going after Ukraine’s grain exports — including not renewing the Black Sea grain deal — would represent a crippling blow to the global food supply.

Excerpted from Peter’s May 9 “Zeihan on Geopolitics” newsletter:

The headlines of the week are all looking at the “imminent Ukrainian counterattack,” and while there are many reasons to expect action from both sides….let’s focus on the inevitables for today. We’ve seen the Russians struggling to hit their targets thanks to upgrades to the Ukrainian defense capabilities. So we’ll likely see the Russians pivot from targeting power infrastructure to something new…

While not perfect, the Black Sea export initiative did have some successes. By the EU’s counting, some 23 million tons of grain — mostly corn and wheat — were exported, helping the Ukrainians clear the backlog of their bumper 2020/2021 harvest. But the good news ends there. Ukraine has lost at least 15% of its grain storage capacity to the war, and much of its sunflower-crushing facilities are either inaccessible due to occupation or loss of infrastructure or destroyed. This means Kyiv, when able, will likely have to focus on exporting bulk sunflower seeds rather than higher-value sunflower oil.

Unfortunately, the Black Sea grain export deal brokered by the UN and Turks expires May 18th and is unlikely to be revived anytime soon. Expect the Russians to switch their focus to agricultural infrastructure. Targets like this are much harder to defend, and this will likely mark the beginning of the end of any meaningful food exports coming out of Ukraine.

On the Ukrainian side, they have all the supplies and weaponry ready to launch a counter-offensive, but there’s still a few feet of mud keeping anything from happening. I wouldn’t expect a ton of action from either side this month, but it’s coming soon. Tomorrow we’ll discuss the minimum victory cases for each side.