Americans can’t say they weren’t warned. According to Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen, if Congress and the White House fail to reach an agreement to lift the limit on federal debt, the Treasury could start to miss payments on its obligations as early as June 1. A U.S. default would shatter the $24 trillion market for Treasury debt, causing financial markets to plummet across the globe. So how will this all end? Straight Arrow News contributor Peter Zeihan thinks it’s too early to panic because he’s betting on a last-minute compromise.

Excerpted from Peter’s May 23 “Zeihan on Geopolitics” newsletter:

We’re talking U.S. politics today, and for those who don’t eat, sleep, and breathe politics (aka having a life), it’s about the debt ceiling. Spoiler alert: It will probably end the same way it always does…

Anytime the White House and at least one house of Congress are in different hands, that house of Congress will use it as a chance to squeeze in some concessions. This is all just political theater, but it has gone a bit further than usual.

It can be attributed to the state of flux many of the leading political factions have found themselves in. Between the unions, fiscals, and business conservatives all transitioning, there’s no one around to knock some sense into these other groups more willing to push the limits.

So how will all of this end? I would expect a last-minute compromise because no one in the government wants to actually face a default.