Ukraine’s spring counteroffensive is officially on hold as the embattled country awaits delivery of pledged military aid. Meanwhile, Putin’s weapons stockpile may be shrinking.

Straight Arrow News contributor Peter Zeihan believes that, for Russia, it doesn’t matter whether it loses the next battle or not. He argues Putin is playing the long game and the world security order will look drastically different when the war is over.

Excerpted from Peter’s May 11 “Zeihan on Geopolitics” newsletter:

When a country views a conflict as existential, putting a timeline on it is nearly impossible. So no matter how well (or bad) this Ukrainian counter-offensive [sic] plays out, we are only at the beginning of a long, drawn-out war.

For the Russians, war doesn’t stop in Ukraine; it stops once they have captured enough land or territory deemed critical to their survival. So we’re no longer talking about Kyiv or Crimea…we’re talking about Russia moving west and trying to occupy former strategic positions the Soviets held, like Warsaw.

So what does that mean for the Ukrainians? If they are going to stop the Russians from waging war again, not only do they need to take back all of their lands…they need to take the fight to the Russians.

No matter how the Ukraine War plays out, we are looking at an extreme breakdown of the security order. Either Russia emerges victorious, and a confrontation with NATO is in the cards – OR – Ukraine comes out on top and sends the Russian State down a path of disintegration.