Since its establishment, Turkey has consistently pursued a foreign policy of neutrality in major conflicts, striving to maintain independence at any expense. With its strategic geographical position, robust industrial sector and youthful population, Turkey stands as an important player in global politics.
As President Tayyip Erdogan maintains his grip on power, Straight Arrow News contributor Peter Zeihan explores the potential ramifications of choices this influential nation could make over the next several years.
Excerpted from Peter’s Dec. 29 “Zeihan on Geopolitics” newsletter:
Today’s country shouldn’t come as a surprise to anyone. Sure, Turkey has been relatively silent over the past 70 years, but as American guardianship of the global seas declines, Turkey will reemerge as a dominant power.
Much of Turkey’s significance stems from its very, very fortunate geography; it controls the Turkish Straits and several other key waterways. This means that if anyone wants to move anything in this region, guess who they have to work with — Bingo — Turkey.
That’s the driving factor here, but it leaves Turkey with some big decisions. Should it partner with Ukraine against Russia or expand its influence in the Caucasus? Should it try to dominate the Aegean or displace German power in the Balkans? Should it absorb Mesopotamia and become the determining power of the Persian Gulf or make a bid for control of the Eastern Mediterranean? Given Turkey’s limited power to pursue all options simultaneously, it has some hefty strategic decisions to make that will shape its future.
Access Peter’s other post-American world commentaries:
- East Asia in a post-American world
- Romania in a post-American world
- Scandinavia reawakens in a post-American world
- Australia in a post-American world
- India in a post-American world
- Northern Africa in a post-American world
- Israel in a post-American world
- Germany’s steep decline poses dire threat to future of EU
- The Middle East in a post-American world
- Getting ready for the post-American world