The timetable for the next significant step in the Ukraine War remains up in the air. Ukraine President Volodymyr Zelenskyy says his army needs more time as it awaits the arrival of additional military aid from the U.S. and European allies. Russia, meanwhile, has moved to target Ukrainian grain imports, which would have global consequences.

Straight Arrow News contributor Peter Zeihan says when Ukraine does launch its counteroffensive, ground movement and warmer weather will be the keys to success.

Excerpted from Peter’s May 10 “Zeihan on Geopolitics” newsletter:

Ukraine has done all the prep work to launch its counteroffensive against the Russians. Now they just need Mother Nature to do her part and let the ground firm up. So, I would expect the tanks to roll out at the end of May or June.

Preliminary attacks by the Ukrainians have helped weaken the Russian’s ability to move. Since Russia typically fights by rail, these attacks have focused on rail nodes and connections. As Russian strategy pivots to trucks and vehicles, Ukraine targeting will shift to fuel depots and supply lines.

The Ukrainians have seen success by punching through the Russian front, cutting off supply lines, and forcing a route. We will likely see a similar strategy used as the Ukrainians push into the Donbas and eventually out to the Sea of Azov.

If you’ve followed me for a while, much of this will sound like my predictions for a Ukrainian counteroffensive in the winter. As we’ve learned, the weather always wins and the Ukrainians are pretty sneaky…so these predictions should be taken with a grain of salt. What I’m looking to do is outline the logical next steps that Ukraine will take to win this war.