On Jan. 4, Indian commandos rescued a ship that had been hijacked by a small band of pirates off the coast of Somalia. The pirates surrendered to the Indian Navy, and there were no deaths or casualties, yet the incident raised alarms about the return of piracy in the area. Some experts cautioned that this incident might be a consequence of the relocation of military vessels to counter Houthi attacks, leaving the Somali waters relatively vulnerable.

Straight Arrow News contributor Peter Zeihan notes the accomplishment of the Indian Navy and then dives into what this means for India’s military power projection and the implications for the future of trade in the Indian Ocean.

Below is an edited excerpt from Peter’s Jan. 25 “Zeihan on Geopolitics” newsletter:

Today we’re talking about the Indians and pirates — sorry sports fans, not those ones. India launched a successful counter-piracy operation off the coast of Somalia, which has helped reaffirm its global strategic importance, but raised some eyebrows in the process.

India has a unique geopolitical position: they have an ultra-nationalist view on trade and an extreme reluctance to integrate with other nations. If you look back to the Cold War era, partnerships with Russia have left a bitter taste in the Indians’ mouths.

So, India will be pursuing its own economic path, independent of outside forces. As they look to double the size of their industrial plant, what they lack in quality, they’ll make up for in a market of 1.5 billion people.

The eyebrow-raising portion of all this is that it means India could launch its own piracy operations, meaning India will likely be the de facto controller of trade in the Indian Ocean Basin — a critical route for oil transport.

Other countries will have to find ways to work around this new obstacle, and financial incentives are probably going to be the best option. The U.S. is far enough removed to take a hands-off approach and let the Indians determine the future geopolitical landscape of this region.