Romania has traditionally relied upon regional partners to help guarantee its security against more powerful and hostile adversaries. Although typically pro-Russian, Romanians are now beginning to change their thinking in response to the Russia-Ukraine War, with Romanian generals warning that they might soon be fighting against Putin themselves.
Straight Arrow News contributor Peter Zeihan maps out Romanian history and outlines Romania’s best options in a post-U.S. and perhaps even post-EU world.
Below is an excerpt from Peter’s Feb. 2 “Zeihan on Geopolitics” newsletter:
Today’s discussion comes to you from Huron Peak. We’ll discuss one of the middle powers that’s been dealt a bad hand: Romania. At first glance, Romania’s geographic situation looks alright — a nice chunk of land near some water bracketed by the Carpathian Mountains —but zoom in, and you’ll find three very troubling access points.
These access points open up to areas that can support enormous powers, and Romania is just stuck in the middle. This means Romania is often first on the chopping block whenever those powers want to expand or branch out. So Romania is no stranger to being a cog in someone else’s empire.
Even if Romania could make peace with its extensive and mighty neighbors, a handful of smaller players are just as problematic… ahem, Hungary. So, the Romanians have been kept busy, to say the least.
Looking forward, Romania has some big decisions to make. They know Europe is in demographic decline, so there will be a power struggle for the region. They’ve seen Russia’s blunder in Ukraine, so there’s a chance they won’t have to roll over for Putin. So, a partnership with Turkey, one of the region’s emerging powers, could help carry Romania to the most significant chapter in its history.
That’s a bold statement, and yes, there are many caveats to it… but the potential to have a partner like Turkey that’s nearby (not directly adjacent) is a pretty good setup.
Access Peter’s other post-American world commentaries:
- East Asia in a post-American world
- Scandinavia reawakens in a post-American world
- Australia in a post-American world
- India in a post-American world
- How should Turkey navigate in a post-American world?
- Northern Africa in a post-American world
- Israel in a post-American world
- Germany’s steep decline poses dire threat to future of EU
- The Middle East in a post-American world
- Getting ready for the post-American world