Russia’s military racked up massive casualties during its winter offensive in Ukraine, with as many as 100,000 Russians killed or wounded since December alone. Vladimir Putin is reportedly ready to mobilize college students to replenish his army’s depleted ranks.

Straight Arrow News contributor Peter Zeihan says Russia is desperate for troops but warns bringing in more “undisciplined” and “ill-prepared” soldiers will give Ukraine the chance to gain the upper hand in the war.

Excerpted from Peter’s May 15 “Zeihan on Geopolitics” newsletter.

What happened to the half million Russian soldiers I predicted would hit the battlefield by June?

This goes without saying, but the data we’re working with is shaky. The video could stop there…but it’s also worth noting that even [especially] Russian President Vladimir Putin is being lied to. I suppose you’re asking for it when your inner circle is comprised of only six people (of which only half are competent).

Now back to the 500,000 number. At least 300,000 soldiers have been injured or killed since the operation began, which is close to the total from the first Russian mobilization. Yikes.

The Russians will need to bring in more numbers with a second mobilization, which means low-skilled soldiers and weak points in the Russian line. Now we’re looking through a murky and convoluted lens, but this all sounds like an opportunity for Ukraine.