On March 18, Turkey and Ukraine indicated that a 2022 grain exports agreement with Russia had been renewed again, allowing exports from Ukrainian ports through a safe corridor in the Black Sea. Back in October 2022, Russia had suspended its participation in the agreement, accusing Ukraine of using the protected shipping lanes as drone launch sites. Then in November, Russia changed direction and agreed to extend the deal another 120 days.

Straight Arrow News contributor Peter Zeihan isn’t surprised by Russia’s flip-flops on the grain deal and fears the global consequences should Ukraine’s exports dramatically decline.

Excerpted from Peter’s March 23 “Zeihan on Geopolitics” newsletter:

The changing situation with the Ukraine Grain Deal has given me plenty to ponder while tromping through Fjordland in New Zealand. Due to the war, Ukrainian agricultural exports were reduced to a fraction of their pre-war numbers. The grain deal brokered by the UN was a glimmer of hope that perhaps exports wouldn’t entirely fall off the map…

With winter on the way out and summer just around the corner, the Russians are reevaluating their strategy. Targeting power infrastructure may have worked during the winter, but it doesn’t make much sense for the warmer months…it appears the new target will likely be Ukrainian agriculture.

We’ve already seen the Russians change the renegotiation period of the grain deal from 120 days to 60 days, and I wouldn’t be surprised if March is the last time the Russians re-sign. So Ukrainian exports might fall off very soon, but can the rest of the world’s (already struggling) agriculture industry pick up the slack?