When Russia was struggling to find new recruits last year to fight its war in Ukraine, the Wagner Group, a private paramilitary organization, stepped in. A group of bipartisan Senators wants to designate the group as a terrorist organization for its ruthless tactics on the battlefield. According to the White House, more than 30,000 members of the group—mostly recruited from prisons to serve on the front lines—have been injured or killed in Ukraine.

Straight Arrow News contributor Peter Zeihan believes there’s little chance the group will be able to find fresh recruits, which puts the very existence of the Wagner Group at risk.

Excerpted from Peter’s Feb. 21 “Zeihan on Geopolitics” newsletter:

There are very few instances when a prisoner would refuse a chance to get out of jail… In Russia, convicts have the opportunity to join the Wagner Group in exchange for a get-out-of-jail card.

If you’re not familiar with the Wagner Group, they’re the militant group that commits war crimes on behalf of the Russian government. Or, if you ask the Russian government, they’re an independent mercenary group that just so happens to support Russian national interests while having zero ties to the government. I’ll let you choose your preferred narrative.

Regardless of who is pulling the strings, the Wagner Group is working against the clock. They’ve depleted their supply of new recruits (ex-military and convicts being the two sources), and if they continue to incur such high casualties, they won’t be around for much longer.