Early in the Cold War, the United States shaped the political landscape of the Middle East. In recent years, Washington’s influence in the region has declined. Amid the ongoing Israel-Hamas war, two questions emerge: Can the U.S. exert significant influence in the Middle East again, and is it inclined to do so?
In his “post-American” series, Straight Arrow News contributor Peter Zeihan continues to opine on the future of the world, this time zeroing in on America’s role in the Middle East.
Excerpted from Peter’s Dec. 19 “Zeihan on Geopolitics” newsletter:
To kick off our “post-American” series, we’ll be looking at the Middle East. The best way to break this down is into three chunks: the role of the U.S. as it leaves, the role of regional powers as they rise, and the role extra-regional powers might play.
The U.S. has been bopping around the Middle East for quite a while now, but why were they there? The U.S. didn’t need the oil, but their friends did…so the U.S. stuck around to keep the allies in the game. But with the U.S. now a net oil exporter, American interest in the region writ large has dwindled. Additionally, the U.S. isn’t looking to help China – the region’s primary export customer – grow, so most of what is keeping the U.S. engaged are just those legacy anti-terror fights.
The U.S. exit strategy will play a role in what regional powers step up…the options are a ditch and run, appointing a successor, or crafting a strategic balance of power that the Americans can manipulate from a distance. Once the U.S. is out, Turkey is the one to watch. The only thing that might keep them from leading the Middle East is being too involved in other regions. Saudi Arabia and Iran are the other two players to keep an eye on (and Israel could play a role, too).
The external powers that could play a role here are quite limited. Outside of the U.S., the only real country that could (and would want to) project power in this area of the world is … Japan. And with the Japanese/American partnership, the U.S. will empower them to do so.
The best part of all this movement and power transition is that the U.S. just doesn’t give a f***.
Access Peter’s other post-American world commentaries:
- East Asia in a post-American world
- Romania in a post-American world
- Scandinavia reawakens in a post-American world
- Australia in a post-American world
- India in a post-American world
- How should Turkey navigate in a post-American world?
- Northern Africa in a post-American world
- Israel in a post-American world
- Germany’s steep decline poses dire threat to future of EU
- Getting ready for the post-American world