In May 2022, President Biden said the U.S. would intervene militarily should China invade Taiwan. In August of the same year, Nancy Pelosi visited the island, intensifying tensions in the already strained relations between the two superpowers. Now the U.S. and Taiwan have signed a new trade deal designed to bolster the economic ties between Washington and Taipei.

Straight Arrow News contributor Peter Zeihan reexamines the chances that China will decide to attack its neighbor.

Excerpted from Peter’s June 1 “Zeihan on Geopolitics” newsletter:

In mid-May, the U.S. Trade Representative established a trade initiative with Taiwan. While this isn’t a full-blown trade deal, it represents the shift in U.S. policy towards recognizing Taiwan as an independent country.

Taiwan is already an important trade partner for the U.S., so the economic rationale is there. You can also throw a check next to strategic reasoning, as keeping Taiwan out of Beijing’s grasp means access to critical military positioning for the U.S.

You can probably guess how the mainland feels about all this…but does that mean an invasion will happen? Unfortunately, I could see this going either way. It would be hard to imagine a world where Xi considers an attack a good idea, but who knows what will happen if everyone keeps drinking the CCP-Propaganda-Kool-Aid?