Although Ukrainian officials haven’t confirmed that their widely-anticipated counteroffensive against Russia has begun, the Institute for the Study of War (ISW), a Washington, D.C.-based think tank, says Ukraine’s campaign to retake territory has started. In a series of tweets on June 8, the ISW said, “Activity throughout #Ukraine is consistent with a variety of indicators that Ukrainian counteroffensive operations are underway.”
Straight Arrow News contributor Peter Zeihan agrees and predicts there are three main assaults to come.
Excerpted from Peter’s June 9 “Zeihan on Geopolitics” newsletter:
The Ukrainian counteroffensive is upon us, and there are three main assaults to follow: one of strategic importance and the others being a mix of strategic and emotional significance.
The purely strategic assault is a multi-pronged move on Zaporizhia in hopes of pushing south to the Sea of Azov. This would sever the land bridges of Ukraine proper and Russia proper, splitting the front in two.
The second assault was supposed to be an amphibious assault further down the river that would eventually cut off the Crimean Peninsula. The Russians foiled those plans with the destruction of the Kakhovka Dam.
The third assault is a push east into the Donbas. This would be no easy feat, but it’s on the table for one reason: if the Ukrainians can reclaim territory that Russia seized in 2014, it would be a global humiliation — humiliating enough to convince some of those Russian backers to reconsider their allegiances.
Oh yeah, one more thing. The information on the Zaporizhia offensive comes from Russian military bloggers, not the Ukrainians. Kyiv seems to have operational security down. I’ve heard a lot of details, but nothing that I’m in a position to authenticate. Ergo, this video’s broad-brush approach.