On March 5, a Ukrainian Magura-V5 unmanned surface vessel (USV), commonly referred to as a sea drone, sank a Russian patrol vessel in the Black Sea. Previously in February, up to three Magura-V5s launched an attack on the landing ship Tsezar Kunikov near the Crimean town of Alupka. These sea drones, developed by the Ukrainian Armed Forces and controlled remotely via a satellite link, have the capability to reach the Crimean Peninsula and even the Russian coastline.

Straight Arrow News contributor Peter Zeihan asserts that Ukraine’s successful use of sea drones is diminishing Russia’s ability to reinforce Crimea by sea. According to Zeihan, if this trend continues, Crimea could lose its supply routes, potentially leading to a significant shift in the direction of the war.

Excerpted from Peter’s March 19 “Zeihan on Geopolitics” newsletter:

The Ukrainians have made some huge strides in the maritime theater and have poked some eyebrow-raising holes in Russia’s naval capabilities.

The first thing of note is the sinking of a Russian patrol vessel by Ukrainian drones. This drone strike took place farther east than other attacks, bringing Russian detection capabilities into question.

The second incident was the sinking of a Russian landing ship. This further hampers Russia’s ability to reinforce Crimea and shows just how vulnerable Russian naval assets might be.

These attacks suggest a shift in Ukrainian strategy, targeting Russian naval assets with drones. While the war that on land has been a drawn out series of give and take, the maritime theater is heating up.