Wheat thrives in temperatures between 70°F and 75°F but has difficulty in temperatures above 90°F. So, what happens when climate change leads to rising heat that damages wheat crops and reduces yields? Models predict that by 2050, climate change will significantly lower global wheat production, particularly in Africa and South Asia, where food security is already at risk.

Watch the video above as Straight Arrow News contributor Peter Zeihan explains the “outsized impacts” of climate change on agriculture, especially wheat, and identifies the regions most affected.

Excerpted from Peter’s Sept. 4 “Zeihan on Geopolitics” newsletter:

Although climate change models are still evolving, historical climate data shows a clear warming trend. So, let’s discuss the impacts of climate change, specifically who will be affected the most and who might even benefit from it.

When you think of climate change, think of it as an amplification of current conditions. So, hot and dry areas will likely become hotter and drier. Hot and humid regions are likely to get even wetter and face severe health risks. Agricultural zones in marginal climates will suffer the most, especially those dependent on wheat.

Speaking of wheat — humanity’s primary calorie source — you might want to enjoy that cinnamon roll and pasta while you have the chance… Okay, maybe that’s a bit dramatic, but you can expect production to decline and prices to soar. This will especially impact places like the American Great Plains, central Argentina, the Russian wheat belt, and northern China.

However, regions with dual wind streams are poised to do pretty well amidst the warming climate. Think of zones like the American South and Midwest, parts of Argentina, Uruguay, northwestern Europe, and New Zealand. Unfortunately for the Chinese, their agricultural regions are particularly vulnerable, which will lead to severe food shortages and famine.