Formerly the undisputed leader in the semiconductor industry, Intel has faced challenges in recent years due to a lack of innovation and issues with execution. Competitors like Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Company (TSMC) and Samsung have gradually eroded its market share. However, a new manufacturing technology has emerged, providing Intel with an opportunity to reclaim its position at the forefront of the industry.
Straight Arrow News contributor Peter Zeihan examines the current state of the semiconductor sector, delving into the reasons behind Intel’s decline and the specific strategies that Intel is now implementing to reclaim its prominent position.
Excerpted from Peter’s Feb. 12 “Zeihan on Geopolitics” newsletter:
The semiconductor industry is one of ever-growing importance, and its leaders— Intel and TSMC —are now fighting to be the first to bring the next generation of advanced chips to market.
Since its founding in the late 60s, Intel has been on the leading-edge of semiconductor manufacturing. For decades it pushed new technologies forward, vastly influencing technology developments across myriad sectors. Intel’s reign of supremacy ended, however, when in 2016 it misjudged the readiness of a novel lithography technology — extreme ultra-violet (EUV).
When Intel hesitated, Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Company (TSMC) took the EUV plunge, and it paid off. TSMC is now the leading producer of sub-7nm chips, having utilized EUV lithography technology on a mass scale since 2019. Intel, on the other hand, just reached that point last year. Intel is hungry though, and has ambitious plans for the near-future, including securing the next generation of lithography machines (high-NA EUV) before any of its competitors.
The importance of the semiconductor industry will continue to grow as technology evolves and the green transition is carried out. Adding additional layers of security, stability, and cushion to the manufacturing process will be essential as geopolitical tensions rise and the world deglobalizes.