Amid increasing polarization in the United States and the anticipation of a rematch between President Joe Biden and former President Donald Trump, a third-party organization is gaining momentum. The No Labels group has successfully registered 15,000 voters in the pivotal state of Arizona and is on a path to expand its presence to all 50 states by Election Day.

Some Democrats worry that a third-party candidate could siphon votes away from Biden. At the same time, some Republicans are concerned that an alternative to Trump may diminish their chances of securing the White House.

Straight Arrow News contributor John Fortier explores the potential candidates No Labels might endorse and breaks down which of the two major parties might face more consequences if No Labels were to field a presidential candidate.

The reaction to this effort has been twofold. Reformers like what they see in the No Labels effort. A candidacy of the center might be able to win in this environment, or at least shake up our politics. On the other side, many establishment Democrats view the No Labels effort as a threat to the Democratic Party, to Joe Biden’s reelection, and even to democracy itself.

The reformers and establishment Democrats have in common the belief that the No Labels candidates can attract a large share of the popular vote. Establishment Democrats, however, also see the effort as taking more votes from the Democratic side. So are they right? Will a No Labels presidential ticket gain a large share of the vote, and will it hurt Democrats more than Republicans?

First, how well will the new third-party ticket do in 2024? The answer is, likely, not very well. While America has a long history of third-party presidential candidates, it also has a strong history of two-party dominance.