According to the United Nations, more than 200,000 people have died during Yemen’s civil war and the country is suffering from an epic humanitarian crisis. But after eight years of the war between Iran-backed Houthi rebels and a Saudi-backed Yemeni government, a potential truce is being hammered out. On April 9, a delegation from Saudi Arabia was in Sanaa, Yemen’s capital, to negotiate with the Houthi rebels who control the city.

While peace in the region is welcomed, Straight Arrow News contributor Katherine Zimmerman fears Yemen faces other challenges and that the news might not be as good as it appears.

For background, Saudi Arabia, at the request of the internationally recognized Yemeni government, launched a military intervention in March 2015 to unseat the Houthis who had seized control. The Saudi-led campaign had a devastating impact on humanitarian conditions and has proven largely ineffective in achieving its military objectives. The Houthis, who receive support from Iran and its proxies, still control the capital and most of northwestern Yemen, where the majority of Yemenis live.

Saudi Arabia has sought a way out of Yemen now for years but remains challenged by two realities: First, Saudi Arabia can never really leave Yemen fully — the country has relied on direct budgetary support to the tune of $2 billion annually from the Kingdom to function. Second, the Houthis have a large stockpile of Iranian-provided weapons that they could use at any time to strike deep within Saudi territory. And there is no trust between the Saudis and the Houthis.

The Houthis have held the upper hand in Yemen’s civil war since 2018 and the prospects for tipping the scales against them are slim at this point. The anti-Houthi coalition, a hodgepodge of powerful factions, is plagued by rivalries and internal conflicts. A Saudi initiative last year installed a presidential leadership council, comprised of those various factions, to run the Yemeni government. Initial optimism faded as frictions paralyzed the council and made it clear to the Houthis that their opposition was far from united.

At this point, the Houthis can negotiate a peace on their terms and seem to be prepared to do so.

The Houthis will not accept a deal that lessens their power and influence. They have moved in Taliban-like fashion to institutionalize and enforce restrictions on civil liberties in the name of their fundamentalist interpretation of Zaydi Shia Islam. Women have been removed from public spaces, pushed out of jobs, and are required to be accompanied by a male guardian when traveling. The educational curriculum reinforces the Houthis’ ideological beliefs and boys receive military training and indoctrination at summer camps.

Could having to rule all of Yemen weaken the Houthis? Maybe. But probably not.