The United States and its allies have severely reduced the capacity for al-Qaeda, the terrorist group behind the 9/11 attacks, to organize or carry out any large-scale terrorist attacks against the U.S. homeland. Recent U.S. intelligence assessments suggest al-Qaeda is weaker than ever in Afghanistan, while experts and international observers continue to warn that al-Qaeda is regenerating. The divergence in depictions of the threat from al-Qaeda leads some Americans to wonder how safe they really are.

Straight Arrow News contributor Katherine Zimmerman believes that while the threat from the formal al-Qaeda organization within Afghanistan is now dramatically reduced, al-Qaeda is not confined to Afghanistan or any other country. Lone-actor and small-scale attacks within the U.S. remain probable, Zimmerman maintains, and al-Qaeda’s threat will only remain in check with sustained counterterrorism pressure.

How should the American public understand today’s terrorism threat? It’s confusing when threat assessments from U.S. government officials are offered in a piecemeal manner, and terrorism experts point repeatedly at the strengthening and proliferation of groups outside of those that have historically threatened the United States. Americans simply want to know whether they should feel safe.

And yes, in general, Americans should feel safe. The United States has an amazing body of intelligence, law enforcement, defense, diplomatic and homeland security professionals, who work tirelessly to identify and eliminate threats as they are developing. The Department of Homeland Security has issued a clear assessment: The threat from individuals who radicalized within the United States remains high, and transnational groups like al-Qaeda and the Islamic State are trying to rebuild overseas. The fact that 2024 will be an election year makes an attempted terrorist attack all the more likely. But in layman’s terms, Americans should expect the types of domestic attacks observed in recent years, with lone actors or small groups conducting deadly but unsophisticated attacks.