Multiple 2024 presidential election polls have already been published, but their results vary significantly. One consistent finding is that voters generally expect President Joe Biden and former President Donald Trump to be the nominees for their respective parties. A recent poll conducted by the New York Times and Siena College indicates that Trump is leading Biden in five of six swing states, while an October Marist Poll shows Biden ahead in the national race.

Straight Arrow News contributor David Pakman argues that the reliability of these early general election polls remains uncertain due to a range of factors from undecided voters to the potential entry of a third-party candidate.

The next question becomes, “What about the general election?” And anybody who is looking at general election polling right now, and telling us that the argument is clear for who is going to win, Biden or Trump — if those are the nominees — it is very much unclear for a couple of different reasons. 

Number one: It’s so early and a lot of the respondents are unsure at this point in time. You’ll often see Biden and Trump tied at 42. Well, 42 plus 42 is 84. That leaves 16% of the electorate unsure or potentially supporting someone else. That’s one reason why the current polling on the general isn’t super useful. 

The other reason is that Robert F. Kennedy Jr. is now running independent. And assuming he stays in this race — although I’ve heard nothing from him for weeks now — but assuming he stays in this race, by the time we get to Election Day he will have siphoned off some portion, I believe, of the Trump electorate that is not yet [decided], that is currently in the polling of supporting Trump.