Russian soldier plants explosives at military base, defects to Ukraine
A Russian soldier, known by the call sign “Silver,” defected to Ukraine in a dramatic escape after planting explosives at his military base. The ensuing explosion injured his commander and several officers.
Silver, a 24-year-old drone operator from Siberia, had become disillusioned with the Russian military, citing war crimes, corruption, and extrajudicial killings within his ranks.
In a video released by the Freedom for Russia Legion, Silver can be seen throwing a grenade into the bunker where his commanders were sleeping, injuring senior officers. He then used mines to cover his tracks as he fled, following a pre-planned route to defect to Ukraine. The operation was dubbed “Ocheret” by Ukraine’s military intelligence.
Silver’s cooperation has reportedly provided Ukraine with valuable insights into Russian military operations along the front line. Despite his claims, which include witnessing commanders killing their own soldiers, Russia’s Defense Ministry has declined to comment on his defection.
Ukraine views Silver’s defection as a sign of growing unrest within the Russian military. He is now undergoing training as part of Ukraine’s Freedom for Russia Legion, a group of Russian dissidents fighting alongside Ukrainian forces.
Armed drone-on-drone violence documented in Ukraine
Time to add a couple more entries to the list of military records from the war in Ukraine. On March 29, video was captured showing what could be the first recorded combat between an armed unmanned aerial vehicle (UAV) and armed unmanned ground vehicle (UGV).
The video, posted to Telegram and analyzed by Army Recognition, documents an encounter south of Avdiivka between two Russian ground drones and Ukrainian FPV aerial drones.
The Russian UGVs appear to be immobilized while Ukrainian FPVs carrying explosive munitions hammer away, eventually destroying the Russian’s robotic devices.
The Russian UGVs appear to be armed with automatic grenade launchers. Army Recognition reported they were AGS-17s, a launcher developed during the Soviet era and known for its firepower.
The analysts at Army Recognition said the historical moment of the first conflict between armed ground and aerial drones showcases the flexibility the technology now brings to the battlefield, and further signifies the shift towards more autonomous forms of combat.
The Armed Forces of Ukraine are now flying FPV drones with auto-targeting capabilities.
In many of the FPV drone videos from Ukraine, the video feed goes to static before impact. That’s because the drone loses line-of-sight connection with its operators or the drone was successfully jammed with electronic countermeasures. Either way, the last part of the attack is more or less guessing where the target will be and hoping for a hit.
Now, video from Ukraine’s 60th and 63rd Mechanized Brigades appears to show an FPV drone still hitting its target long after the video feed dropped out. This indicates that the drone was guided to its final destination with the help of artificial intelligence, taking the human out of the loop.
While much of the rest of the world is still debating how drones and AI should be used in warfare, Ukraine and Russia are creating policy on the fly in real time.
The Ukraine war is the first major armed conflict in Europe in 25 years. Since the war broke out, the use of drones developed dramatically fast. Aerial drones now deal more damage for Ukraine than traditional artillery. Unmanned ground vehicles went from simple munitions mules and mine layers to full-on attack platforms and Ukraine’s Sea Baby drones forced Russia’s Black Sea fleet to flee the Black Sea.
None of this is going unnoticed. The United States and plenty of other militaries are adapting their own techniques and future weapons acquisitions based on the lessons learned in Ukraine.
It’s been two years since the start of Russia’s three-day special military operation to take Ukraine. Hundreds of thousands of people are dead. Entire cities have been reduced to rubble. The 600-mile frontline hasn’t changed much over the last year, but if you believe what world leaders are saying, this next year could decide the fate of Ukraine, Russia, and the world for the rest of human history.
After last year’s unsuccessful counteroffensive, Ukraine was forced to take up defensive positions, ceding momentum in the war to the Russians. Moscow capitalized on that and took Avdiivka in eastern Ukraine, the site of the bloodiest battles since at least Bakhmut and possibly the entire war.
Russia had been trying to take Avdiivka since 2014, when most Ukrainians say the real war with Russia started. After Russia’s full-scale invasion, Ukraine was able to hold Avdiivka because of Western artillery, mostly from the United States. But the U.S. hasn’t passed a substantial aid package to Ukraine in over a year, and what ammo supplies Ukraine does have are dwindling. So, defending Avdiivka became unsustainable.
From the start, Russia always had more manpower, more guns, more tanks — just more of everything. In the early days of fighting, though, the Ukrainian fighting spirit was charged. National pride swelled and there was an influx of Western support. Those factors allowed Ukraine to stand up to Russia and push back the early onslaught. It also helped that the donated Western weaponry proved superior to Russian.
But in a prolonged war, mass matters. For example, in Avdiivka, Russia was firing 10,000 artillery rounds a day compared to Ukraine’s 2,000. And Russian soldiers reportedly outnumbered Ukrainian soldiers seven to one.
Russia is also ramping up its weapons production at a rate no one in NATO thought possible and struck deals with Iran and North Korea to get more artillery shells and missiles — including ballistic missiles.
European support for Ukraine remains strong, but the follow through isn’t always there. Ukraine’s European allies admitted they are far behind where they should be to hit their goal of providing Kyiv with a million 155 mm artillery rounds a year. But Denmark said it would give the entirety of its artillery to Ukraine, Canada is going to fund the purchase of shells from non-NATO countries, and German defense conglomerate Rheinmetall is pushing forward with plans to dramatically increase its shell production.
Early in the war, Ukraine held a clear advantage in drone warfare. Russia increased its production of drones too, though. So, drones are now equally a threat on both sides.
Russian bombers found success launching glide bombs at Ukrainian cities, but Ukraine is now countering that threat by moving its Patriot air defense systems closer to the frontlines. The move is paying off, as Ukraine was recently able to down seven Sukhoi fighter jets in five days.
And that example is sort of a microcosm of this war as a whole. Ukraine doesn’t have much of an air force but was able to use Western weapons to stand against a much larger foe. Supporters said, imagine what Ukraine could do if they ever got the same sort of armaments NATO would use in a war with Russia? You know, things like long-range missiles or air support.
But Russia knows Western support, or U.S. support, is hanging by a thread. So, while Ukraine might have the missiles to down Russian jets today, it doesn’t have enough to keep it up indefinitely. Just like there weren’t enough artillery shells in Avdiivka.
Most of the EU and NATO-allies agree Vladimir Putin won’t stop in Ukraine if he’s successful. That’s why NATO countries are spending on defense like they never have before. U.S. military leaders also said China is watching Ukraine, because what happens there could happen in Taiwan. And if the world is unwilling to stop Russia and China, then why would it be willing to stop Iran, which has designs on reshaping the Middle East?
What happens in the next year in Ukraine will be closely watched and monitored by governments and militaries around the world because it could all be a preview of what lies ahead.
Russia is on the verge of capturing its first Ukrainian settlement in eight months. Avdiivka, in eastern Ukraine, is home to some of the war’s fiercest fighting and is seen as crucial territory by both Kiev and Moscow.
Before the war broke out, around 32,000 people lived in Avdiivka. Now, fewer than a thousand people remain. There isn’t a building still intact. So, whoever is still there is forced to seek safety in basements and bomb shelters.
The city is about nine miles north of the Russian-controlled city of Donetsk, in the industrial Donbas region of Ukraine.
Avdiivka is known for its coke plant, which produces fuel for industrial work like iron ore smelting. The plant would be a welcome addition to the Russian war machine, but in the meantime, it’s providing Ukraine with one of the last defensible positions in the area.
Ukrainian soldiers said Russia is launching near constant “meat wave” attacks; a tactic of trying to overwhelm defenses through sheer personnel numbers. Despite the huge casualty rate associated with these tactics, one soldier with Ukraine’s 47th Mechanized Brigade told Radio Liberty Russian soldiers were literally crawling over their own dead comrades to keep advancing.
British military intelligence said the fighting in Avdiivka contributed to some of the highest Russian casualty rates of the war. Even Russian military bloggers, who face stiff scrutiny from the Kremlin, acknowledged the high Russian losses.
Nevertheless, the Russians persist. Vladimir Putin stressed in late January the significant role Avdiivka plays in Moscow’s plan to consolidate power and control in the Donbas — one of the regions illegally annexed by Russia — but still not fully under its control.
Ukraine is holding on so it can deny Russia the battlefield victory, but it’s taking great losses as well.
Ukrainian forces are running critically low on manpower and ammunition for both small arms and artillery. Ukraine can fire just 2,000 artillery shells a day. Russia is firing around 10,000. The United States and some European countries keep pledging to up their output of 155 mm artillery shells, but so far production is failing to meet demand.
Ukraine isn’t being too picky, though, and said it will take most anything anyone can spare, such as the thousands of old CRV7 rockets Canada has marked for disposal.
Lt. Gen. Kyrylo Budanov, the head of Ukraine’s military intelligence services, said instead of spending millions of taxpayer dollars to essentially throw them away, Canada could give the rockets to Ukraine. The CRV7s can be used by Ukrainian attack helicopters or ground launched, essentially filling in for traditional artillery.
The CRV7s can also be broken down by their component parts and repurposed to use in other areas like Ukraine’s drone industry.
Ukraine is also supposed to finally start taking possession of the Ground-Launched Small Diameter Bombs the U.S. promised to send last March. So, those could conceivably be used to help defend Avdiivka as well. But there is only one supply route left for Ukrainian troops to use, and there’s no guarantee the next Russian meat wave attack won’t be the one to finally break Ukraine’s defenses.