China’s population falls for third straight year despite rise in births
China’s population fell for a third straight year in 2024 despite births being up for the first time in eight years. Members of the population died faster than babies were born, and data analysts warn the problem is likely to get worse.
The latest numbers coming From China’s National Bureau of Statistics on Friday, Jan. 17, revealed that the population dropped by nearly 1.4 million people compared to 2023.
It’s a blow to a country that had hoped 2024 that is known as The Year of the Dragon, which is highly regarded in Chinese culture as a prosperous time, would bring an end to the downward trend.
The nation experienced its first decline in population in more than 60 years in 2022 as the population grew older, China’s economy slowed and following a global pandemic.
Epidemiologists estimate China lost up to 1.5 million people to COVID-19 pandemic deaths while the true number may never be known.
As Straight Arrow News previously reported, Beijing is working to reverse the trend of population decline by promoting childbirth following its long-held one-child-policy.
The effort has sometimes become invasive with the Chinese Communist Party (CCP) using heavy-handed tactics.
Some Chinese women said family planning officials were going door-to-door, asking very personal questions about their menstrual cycles and plans for a family.
Some government programs even reportedly offer cash incentives for families to have children.
Despite the efforts, the United Nations (UN) still predicts that China’s population will drop by 109 million people by 2050. Additionally, some reports suggest that China’s numbers could fall to 525 million people by 2100, down from more than 1.4 billion people currently.
It’s troubling news for a country trying to overtake the United States as the number one world economic power.
However, the U.S. may soon face its own population decline as deaths expected to outpace births by 2033 due to lower immigration rates, according to the U.S. Congressional Budget Office on Tuesday, Jan. 14.
South Korea tackles population crisis with foreign caregivers
South Korea launched a pilot program aimed at addressing its declining population and childcare shortage by hiring immigrant caregivers from the Philippines. The program assists families with children under 12 or those expecting a baby.
The program started in August 2024 and brought in 100 Filipino caregivers. The caregivers work either full-time or part-time and are paid South Korea’s minimum wage of $7 an hour.
“We wanted to give couples more options so they wouldn’t have to give up on having children due to financial pressures,” Oh said when the program was announced.
However, the program faced challenges early on. Two caregivers left their jobs after they cited poor working conditions, including long commutes and curfews. The two workers were later detained by South Korean immigration authorities after taking illegal cleaning jobs. They were deported in September 2024.
In response to the criticism, the city made adjustments to the program. Officials have eliminated the curfew, reduced commuting distances and switched to more frequent wage payments.
Critics argue that the program doesn’t solve the underlying issue of childcare being seen as a responsibility primarily for women. They said that perceived responsibility discouraged many families from having more children.
South Korea has one of the lowest fertility rates in the world, with an average of 0.72 children per woman. The population decline is already creating labor shortages in sectors like agriculture, manufacturing and domestic services.
While the government hopes this program can help ease the childcare burden, experts and advocacy groups question whether it offers a sustainable solution to the larger demographic challenges the country faces.
Why deportations are an ‘economic disaster’ and other immigration truths
There are likely more than 11 million immigrants living in the U.S. today without authorization. On the campaign trail, former President Donald Trump has promised to enact “mass deportations” to remove unauthorized immigrants. Trump said he would use the Alien Enemies Act of 1798, which has not been used since internment camps during World War II.
The American Immigration Council, an advocacy group in favor of expanding immigration, estimates that a single mass deportation operation would cost at least $315 billion, a “highly conservative estimate.” A longer-term operation would cost nearly $1 trillion over a decade.
“But actually, the direct costs of implementing the deportation aren’t even the worst,” said Zeke Hernandez, Wharton School professor and author of “The Truth About Immigration: Why Successful Societies Welcome Newcomers.” “Think of it this way: All of a sudden, businesses have about 11 to 12 million fewer consumers. Is that what we want? Businesses have 11 to 12 million fewer workers to fill critical jobs in key areas; areas that are essential for our economy, like construction.”
“It really would be an economic disaster,” Hernandez said. “And not only do we have to speculate about that, we actually have many historical precedents where we have done exactly that.”
All of a sudden, businesses have about 11 to 12 million fewer consumers. Is that what we want?
Zeke Hernandez, author, “The Truth About Immigration”
The last official count of 11 million unauthorized immigrants in 2022 included 4 million Mexicans; roughly 4 million more from the Caribbean and Central and South America; 1.7 million from Asia; and 1.3 million from Europe, Canada, the Middle East, Africa and Oceania. The Census numbers have not been updated to reflect ongoing migration at the U.S.-Mexico border since 2022.
Trump campaign national press secretary Karoline Leavitt says a majority of Americans “want mass deportations of illegal immigrants and trust President Trump most on this issue.”
In a recent Gallup poll that has tracked Americans’ immigration preferences since 1965, 55% of respondents said they preferred immigration levels be decreased, compared to 16% who said they should be increased and 25% who said they should stay the same. It’s the highest amount of Americans reporting a desire to decrease immigration levels since the month following the Sept. 11, 2001, attacks.
Hernandez said the shifting attitude is understandable given the negative immigration rhetoric from politicians and the media.
It’s not just that you have a few bad apples coming in, it’s that our system for bringing in apples is completely screwed up.
Zeke Hernandez, author, “The Truth About Immigration
“One of the big surprises of the last year or so is that both the Right and the Left have now taken a fairly aggressive message about the border and about how the influx of immigrants is really doing us damage,” he told Straight Arrow News.
Hernandez cited Democratic mayors who used to be pro-immigration, now taking a stance on limiting immigration. Many of those mayors are facing budget constraints from an unexpected influx of migrants. While these arrivals cause short-term pain points, Hernandez argues that long-term economic benefits are around the corner.
“Immigrants contribute five big economic benefits to every country and community they arrive to,” he said. “And those would be, one, investment, two, innovation, three, talent, four, consumption, and five, taxes. And those are the inputs to any prosperous economy.”
That’s not to say America’s immigration system isn’t in need of a major overhaul.
“It’s not just that you have a few bad apples coming in, it’s that our system for bringing in apples is completely screwed up,” Hernandez said.
In an extended interview with SAN, Hernandez draws on 20 years of research to give fact-based explanations on the impacts of legal versus unauthorized immigration, skilled versus low-skilled migrants, immigration storylines of villain versus victim and why both are wrong, and the changes he would apply to the U.S. immigration system. You can watch the entire conversation in the video above.
China upping pressure on people to have kids, it’s getting invasive
China is upping the pressure on its population, pushing families to start having children, according to several reports on Tuesday, Oct. 8. The country introduced a new policy in 2021 aimed at addressing China’s rapidly declining birth rate.
However, new revelations about the reportedly heavy-handed tactics the government is using to achieve results are emerging.
Chinese women are reporting family planning officials going door-to-door and getting very personal, with some asking about women’s menstrual cycles and their plans for children.
The effort is to embrace a “fertility culture” while abandoning a culture that once restricted childbirth.
Some fear the new approach will lead to tougher restrictions on abortion. Those concerns have grown as some cities require any woman who is 14 or more weeks pregnant to get permission from the local family planning department before having the procedure done.
The requirement dates back to the early 2000s to stop parents from aborting female fetuses, a common practice in the one-child era.
However, in at least one city with the rule, officials at two family planning offices reportedly are trying to discourage women from seeking abortions. The firms weren’t ordered to do so but mentioned the government’s three-child policy and less young people having children as an influence.
There’s also more visible artwork in the country, with subliminal messages to encourage childbirth and marriage. China’s new strategy appears to be spurred by fears of a shrinking population as it looks to surpass the United States as a world power.
Getty Images
That goal may prove difficult with China’s population expected to fall by 109 million people by 2050, according to the United Nations, which more than tripled those numbers from a 2019 forecast.
Numbers for the future look even worse for the country, with some reports saying China could lose over 60% of its population, dropping to 525 million residents, by 2100.
South Korean truth commission uncovers coerced adoptions, abuse
A South Korean truth commission has uncovered evidence of mothers being coerced into giving up their days-old infants for foreign adoptions at government-funded facilities between the 1960s and 1980s. Established in December 2020, the commission continues to investigate human rights violations from South Korea’s authoritarian era.
According to the findings, approximately 200,000 South Koreans were adopted overseas in the last six decades, creating what is believed to be the world’s largest diaspora of adoptees. They were placed with families in the United States, Denmark, Norway, and Australia.
The commission is examining 367 cases of Korean adoptees in Europe, the United States, and Australia, who suspect their biological origins were manipulated.
Records from 1985 and 1986 alone show at least 20 adoptions from these facilities, coinciding with the peak of South Korea’s foreign adoption program, which saw more than 17,500 children sent abroad during the same period.
The investigation also exposed inhumane conditions in these government-funded facilities, where thousands endured enslavement, abuse, and even death.
South Korea’s efforts to confront its authoritarian past reveal a nation grappling with historical injustices while continuing to grow as a democratic and rights-respecting society.
New report warns the US faces a maternal health care crisis
The March of Dimes is a nonprofit that focuses on improving the health of mothers and babies.
To make matters worse, it said that in much of the country OB/GYNs and family doctors who deliver babies are leaving the workforce. The American College of Obstetricians and Gynecologists predicts the U.S. will face a shortage of 12,000 to 15,000 OB/GYNs by 2050.
The March of Dimes also found that in the past five years there’s been an uptick in hospitals closing their obstetrics units for a number of reasons — from staff shortages in the wake of the pandemic to low birth volumes.
The March of Dimes found 35% of counties in the U.S. are considered maternity care deserts. That means they don’t have a hospital or birth center offering obstetric care.
Furthermore, the nonprofit found 70% of birth centers in the U.S. are located within just 10 states.
In 2022 alone, more than 150,000 babies were born to people living in maternity care deserts. An additional 200,000 were born to people living in counties with limited maternity care access.
The March of Dimes found six states in particular had the highest percentage of maternity care deserts: North Dakota, South Dakota, Oklahoma, Missouri, Nebraska, and Arkansas. However, the areas with the most need for maternity care are concentrated in the southern part of the U.S.
The new report also said the Supreme Court overturning Roe v. Wade in 2022 is impacting how and where OB/GYNs train and treat patients. The March of Dimes said states where abortion is now prohibited had fewer OB/GYNs for every 10,000 births compared to states where abortion rights were upheld.
China ending international adoption program; American families in limbo
China is ending its international adoption program, leaving hundreds of American families with pending applications in limbo. Since the early 90s, China has sent thousands of children overseas for adoption with about half of them coming to the United States.
The influx stemmed from China’s one-child policy, which forced many families to abandon babies – especially girls or those with disabilities.
Over the last three decades, however, China’s birth rate dropped, and international adoptions declined to the point where they’ve been mostly on hold since the COVID-19 pandemic. Now the Chinese government is officially ending the program.
The move comes as the country faces too few births and the social preference for male children dwindles.
China has now canceled all pending adoptions for U.S. families except those that have already been issued travel authorizations. Moving forward, China will allow foreigners to adopt only the children or stepchildren of their blood relatives in China.
U.S. families have adopted more than 82,000 children from China – the most from any country.
A U.S. consulate issued 16 visas for adoptions from China between October 2022 and September 2023 after they were put on hold because of the pandemic. It’s not clear if any more visas have been issued since then.
Access denied: Less than 1 in 4 infertile couples in US can access IVF
On the campaign trail this week, former President Donald Trump pledged to make in-vitro fertilization free if elected in November. Trump spoke about his plan during a rally.
“I’ve been looking at it and what we’re going to do is, for people that are using IVF – which is fertilization – the government is going to pay for it or mandate your insurance company to pay for it, which is going to be great,” Trump said.
Infertility rates are rising around the world and the cost of IVF in the U.S. can be a huge barrier to treatment. The American Society for Reproductive Medicine estimates that fewer than a quarter of infertile couples have sufficient access to infertility care.
The cost of a single cycle in the U.S. can run $20,000-$25,000, and many families need multiple cycles to achieve a live birth. Studies show an IVF cycle in the U.S. is 271% more expensive than the mean cost in 25 other countries.
“We want to produce babies in this country, right?” Trump said.
The U.S. fertility rate has been at or below replacement levels for more than 50 years. The official replacement rate is 2.1 births per woman. The U.S. currently sits at less than 1.7 births per woman.
And this story is not unique. All but one developed nation struggles with low birth rates. The main concern is this will eventually put a major strain on economies as fewer working-age people will be around to contribute.
That is why this campaign season, candidates are talking more about policies like free IVF and baby bonuses, and the U.S. is far behind on this train.
And in the one developed country in the world where fertility is robust, IVF is free there too.
“It’s an unlimited number of treatments, up to the second child, so long as the mother is below age 45,” Alex Weinreb, a demographer and Research Director at the Taub Center for Social Policy Studies in Israel, said. “It’s quite generous.”
Israel’s fertility rate is the envy of developed countries at 2.9 births per woman. But because its birth rate is already so high, Weinreb said free IVF has less effect.
“If Israel’s fertility was low, then the effect would be larger, but as of now, about 5% or so of births in Israel in any given year, they stem from IVF,” Weinreb said.
So why pay for the program at all? Weinreb said it is all about what the program communicates.
“I think the more important thing in Israel, or in the Israeli context, is it sends a message that the state is supporting women and men’s desire to have children,” Weinreb said.
Trump quickly took his message of free IVF to the campaign trail but with little detail on how he would pay for universal fertility treatments or force insurance companies to cover the cost.
