China has yet to retaliate for the U.S. passing legislation that either bans or forces the sale of TikTok. However, history dictates China will act in an ongoing, technological tit for tat.
On Tuesday, TikTok owner ByteDance sued to block the legislation, claiming it violates the U.S. Constitution. The government itself has not yet reacted but did respond to the proposed ban or forced divestment.
“If the United States persists, China will take resolute and forceful measures to firmly defend its sovereignty, security and development interests,” Chinese Foreign Ministry spokesperson Lin Jian said.
“It’s playing its cards very carefully in a geopolitical chess game,” said Doug Guthrie, a professor of global leadership and executive director of China initiatives at Arizona State University’s Thunderbird School of Global Management.
Guthrie used to work for Apple in Shanghai, helping executives understand how to navigate Xi Jinping’s leadership.
“I do think that there are people at high levels of the government who are watching very carefully and thinking very carefully about how far the U.S. is pushing the negative narrative about China as a nefarious controller and spreader of false information,” Guthrie said.
He doesn’t expect China’s next move to be rash but strategic. He said he’s skeptical of China getting into micro-level tit for tat.
“What I think is there’s a much bigger chess game that’s going on,” Guthrie said. “And yes, sometimes signals are going to be sent out saying, ‘We can control the ways in which iPhones are sold and are popular.’”
Apple took a hit in China — and its stock price — when China banned government officials from bringing iPhones to work last year. The move didn’t just limit Apple’s appeal to government officials, it sent a chilling message to Chinese consumers.
The biggest beneficiary might be Chinese smartphone-maker Huawei, whose market share in the country soared during the same time. Guthrie said Apple is collateral damage in a technological cold war between the U.S. and China, where both countries play the national security card.
China’s iPhone ban came to light several months after the U.S. banned the sale of tech from China’s Huawei and ZTE. The Federal Communications Commission said it was to protect the American people from national security threats involving telecommunications. Later, the U.S. Department of Commerce banned American companies from selling advanced AI chips to China.
“The idea that we can blame China for controlling information or watching information or acting in an authoritarian way and then we make these decisions that are tied directly to Huawei or directly to ByteDance and sort of act in our own authoritarian way, I think we lose stature, not just in China, but in the world,” Guthrie said.
Guthrie said America’s latest chess move with TikTok goes a step beyond China’s usual playbook.
For years, some American companies have bent over backward to continue doing business under Xi’s authoritarian rule, caving to demands on data control and censorship. Others, like Yahoo and LinkedIn, opted to leave, citing a challenging business environment, while China’s “Great Firewall” blocks internet users from accessing the likes of Google and Facebook.
“It’s absolutely the case that the Chinese government has put a stake in the sand and said you cannot cross over this line, and if you do, you’re not allowed to be here,” Guthrie said.
But he said, in pressuring divestment, the U.S. is making a demand of a Chinese company that China has not done to American companies.
For its part, Guthrie said he doubts ByteDance would cave to America’s demands. Given the two TikTok options — sell or be banned — he said ByteDance is likelier to choose the latter.
“They’d rather it not happen and I think there will be a negotiated outcome, but I am very skeptical of the idea that ByteDance will just bow to the United States government and sell Tiktok,” Guthrie said. “I just don’t think it’s going to happen.”
In its lawsuit, TikTok and ByteDance said the Chinese government would not allow it to divest its recommendation algorithm, which makes TikTok so valuable.
