A new Rasmussen Reports poll asked Americans if they believe there is a chance the U.S. sees a second civil war. A large percentage of Americans said they believe that it is not only possible but imminent.

Of registered voters polled, 41% said they believed it’s likely America will see another civil war within the next five years. On the other hand, 49% do not believe a civil war will happen within the next five years and 10% were not sure.

Of those who believe a civil war is likely, 37% said a civil war is most likely to happen if Biden is reelected. Meanwhile, 25% believe it’s more likely if Trump gets a second term.

The poll was conducted just as the “Civil War” movie hit theaters, sparking a lot of buzz over what a domestic war would look like more than 150 years since the first one.

While ideological rifts have long characterized American politics, recent years have witnessed a deepening partisan divide.

In 2003, a Gallup poll revealed stark differences between Republicans and Democrats on issues such as gun control, with 41% of Republicans favoring less stringent laws compared to 70% of Democrats. Fast forward to 2023, and these positions have become even more polarized, with only 31% of Republicans opposing stricter gun regulations while 84% of Democrats support them.

Today, nearly 60% of Democrats believe abortion should be legal under any circumstance compared to 12% of Republicans. 20 years ago, that partisan split was far less apart. Additionally, more Democrats than Republicans believed the federal government had too much power 20 years ago. Now, that hasn’t only switched, but 73% of Republicans believe the government is too big compared to 31% of Democrats.

A country with largely two political ideologies has a lot less middle ground to stand on today compared to 2003 or 2013, according to the Gallup data. The deepening divide in ideology could explain why 41% of Americans believe a civil war really could happen within just a few short years.