Monmouth University Archives

Poll: Majority of Americans now support building border wall

February 27, 2024
For the first time, the majority of Americans now support the idea of building a wall at the southern border, according to a new Monmouth University poll. The poll also found that the majority believe illegal immigration is a “very serious” problem.

Of the people polled, 53% said they back building a wall at the border.

Monmouth first asked Americans if they supported a wall in 2015. Since then, support among Republicans has increased from 73% to 86% and support among independents grew from 47% to 86%. Conversely, fewer Democrats support the wall now, falling from 31% to 17%.

Concern over illegal immigration has increased across party lines. According to the poll, more than 80% of Americans believe it is a “somewhat” or “very serious” issue. As a whole, Americans’ concern over illegal immigration has heightened.

Now, 91% of Republicans believe the situation is “very serious” and 58% of independents feel the same. Meanwhile, 41% of Democrats believe immigration is a “very serious” problem, up from 26% from five years ago.

The responses average out to six in 10 Americans believing there’s a “very serious” issue at the border.

Views on how to address the issue of illegal immigration have also changed.

The poll asked if immigrants seeking asylum should be allowed into the U.S. while they await asylum claims or if they should be made to stay in Mexico until their court date.

Support for the Trump-era “Remain In Mexico” policy has increased from 51% in 2019 to 61% in 2024. Just 35% believe the immigrants seeking asylum should be allowed in the U.S., down from 41%.

In Congress, a bill that would have changed policies at the border failed to pass. Monmouth University found that 85% of people had hear about the negotiations surrounding the border bill. The poll found that 33% of Americans opposed the bill, 23% favored it and 47% said the bill was not tough enough to crack down on illegal immigration.

President Joe Biden and former President Donald Trump — both frontrunners for their parties — are split on how to handle illegal immigration. The issue is becoming a priority for both candidates, and both Biden and Trump will be at the border on Feb. 29.
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Do presidential primary debates matter? Polls show they don’t change who leads

August 9, 2023
Eight candidates have qualified for the first Republican presidential primary debate Aug. 23 in Milwaukee, Wisconsin. Former Vice President Mike Pence became the latest to meet the requirements on Monday, Aug. 7.

Other qualifiers include Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis, South Carolina Sen. Tim Scott, former UN Ambassador Nikki Haley and former President Donald Trump.

To qualify, candidates must be polling at 1% or higher in three polls and have a minimum of 40,000 unique donors.

But for all the effort that’s put into getting on the debate stage, is it really worth it? Will a strong debate performance change who leads the race? Straight Arrow News asked Patrick Murray, the director of the Monmouth University Polling Institute.

“The point of the debate is to try to break out. I mean, the problem with this particular race this year is that you have a front-runner who’s so far ahead, that it makes it very difficult to do that,” Murray said.

According to the Real Clear Politics average of polls, Donald Trump is 38 percentage points ahead of his next closest competitor, Ron DeSantis. Trump has not said if he’ll attend the first debate.

“Ronald Reagan didn’t do it and a lot of other people didn’t do it. When you have a big lead you don’t do it,” Trump told Fox News during a July interview.

Straight Arrow News asked Murray, if he were an internal pollster hired by the Trump campaign, what would his advice be on participating? Murray said he would be surprised if Trump shows up because he has no strategic reason to do that.

“Usually when you’re far ahead, the general rule of thumb is avoid confrontation at all costs. It’s going to be very difficult for these other candidates to make Donald Trump look weak if he’s not there on the stage with [them] to respond,” Murray said.

History shows debates don’t change who is on top, but they can impact lesser known candidates.

The Real Clear Politics average of polls from the 2016 Republican primary shows Trump took the lead in July of 2015 and never looked back. But after debates in August, September and two in October, former Florida Gov. Jeb Bush and Wisconsin Gov. Scott Walker fell, while Dr. Ben Carson got his name out and gained momentum.

The 2020 Democratic primary was somewhat similar. President Biden and Sen. Bernie Sanders were the front-runners. But after the first debate then-Sen. Harris skyrocketed and Sen. Elizabeth Warren began a gradual rise that eventually put her neck and neck with Biden.

However, none of those gains ever led to a victory. So, if no one has the chance to take the lead from Trump in a debate, what’s the best way to beat out the front-runner?

“It’s usually that the candidate themselves stumbles and creates the opening for somebody else to come in. That is really, you know, kind of the key is that you can’t create somebody’s downfall, you just have to be ready to step in and take advantage of when they make a kind of a self error,” Murray said.

While his rivals may be waiting to step in, Trump has repeatedly shown he can survive mistakes that would end other political careers.
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Half the country thinks Biden’s policies are doing nothing for middle class

April 12, 2023

51% of the country believes President Biden’s policies have not benefited the middle class at all. That’s according to a new national poll from Monmouth University that also found 10% of Americans believe middle class families have benefited from the president’s policies a lot.

“Biden’s appeal when he ran for president was that he understands the average Joe. Reaction to his policy agenda, however, suggests it is an area where he remains weak,” Monmouth University Polling Institute Director Patrick Murray said.

President Biden has made building the middle class a priority. His signature line for discussing his economic agenda is “this is an economy building from the middle out and the bottom up.”

The previous two presidents struggled to enact policies that voters thought helped the middle class. Former President Donald Trump’s numbers were nearly identical a year into his term, 11% said the middle class benefited a lot and 53% said not at all. Former President Obama did a little bit better as he was leaving office, 24% said he helped the middle class a lot, 33% said not at all. But there’s a key difference, 44% of Democrats said Obama helped a lot, but only 21% say the same of Biden now.

The poll also gave insights into American’s financial status. 38% described themselves as middle class, 29% as working class, 14% as poor, and 16% as upper middle class or higher.

24% of Americans list inflation as their top concern. The next two on the list are the economy and everyday bills and groceries, coming in at 12%.
Poll: Americans very concerned about artificial intelligence

February 17, 2023

New polling from Monmouth University found that Americans are very concerned about the future of artificial intelligence. For starters, 55% think AI will one day pose a risk to the human race.

Respondents also had doubts about its ability to improve quality of life. Only 9% percent of respondents thought developing AI would do more good than harm to society, 41% thought it would do more harm than good, and 46% thought the advantages and disadvantages would break even.

“One of the things that we see that that concern has gone up about is just like, ‘Will it take over humanity?’” Monmouth University Polling Director Patrick Murray said. “Now, there’s a sense there that we’ve gotten to the point where it’s not just going to replace jobs. But we’ve seen these movies where basically robots take over the world and I think people are starting to fear that.”

As for jobs, 73% said having machines that can think for themselves will hurt employment and the economy while 19% said it would help. The only type of work that received strong support for AI driven machines: risky jobs like coal mining.

“AI makes a lot of sense, which is, you know, really dangerous jobs, like coal mining or something like that, where we send a robot down, and they’ll make the decisions about how to mine the coal rather than send the person down there,” Murray said.

But when it came to work that impacts our health and safety, like self driving delivery trucks, robotic nurses, safety operators and military drone decision making, respondents said they want that human touch.

“So there’s a sense that the closer that you get to somebody, where there could be some significant lasting damage made to a person is that they want another human being there, even with a human beings’, you know, faults and everything else,” Murray said.

This poll could have very different results ten years from now because the concern is generational. Concern about AI’s threats to human existence decreased with age, from 61% of those 55 and older, to 46% of people aged 18 to 34.

“They’re the ones that are more to say, instead of just saying, ‘You know that that self-driving car crashed, so therefore let’s forget about self driving cars,’ which is what you hear from a lot in the older generation, they say, ‘That’s a technology that we probably can work on. It’s just not ready yet,’” Murray said.
Poll shows Americans largely support Biden’s marijuana pardons

October 25, 2022

President Biden recently pardoned everyone convicted of simple marijuana possession, but new reporting from Reason says the pardons won’t free a single federal prisoner because none of them are incarcerated. The report also stated while the pardons may help give approximately 10,000 individuals a clean slate, it represents a tiny percentage of the total convictions because most are at the state level.

“I’m keeping my promise that no one should be in jail for merely using or possessing marijuana, none,” the president said during an event on student loans relief. “And the records, which hold up people from being able to get jobs and the like, should be totally expunged. Totally expunged.”

The president added, “You can’t sell it. But if it’s just use, you’re completely free.”

But in a joint letter, 17 drug policy reform groups encouraged President Biden to pardon people convicted of more serious marijuana related crimes. They called on the president to release a minimum of 100 people in federal prison for cannabis charges out of the 2,800. That includes people who were convicted of intent to distribute more than 100 kilograms.

“Eighteen states and the District of Columbia have legalized cannabis, yet there are thousands of Americans who are serving long-term prison sentences, including some life sentences, in federal facilities for conduct involving amounts of cannabis that are far less than what dispensaries routinely handle on a daily basis,” the letter stated.

New polling from Monmouth University reveals Americans largely support the president’s actions. More than two thirds of the respondents, 69% said they approve of the pardons, while 23% said they disapprove. There was also strong support, 68% for legalizing possession of small amounts of marijuana for personal use, while 26% opposed. 43% of respondents also said marijuana use isn’t really a problem, while 15% said it’s a very serious problem.

Finally, with the midterms around the corner and crime being a major issue for voters around the country, respondents were asked: Do you think legalizing marijuana would impact other drug crimes? A quarter said it would increase, 16% said it would decrease and 54% said it would have no impact.

Poll: Majority of Americans now support building border wall

Do presidential primary debates matter? Polls show they don’t change who leads

Half the country thinks Biden’s policies are doing nothing for middle class

Poll: Americans very concerned about artificial intelligence

Poll shows Americans largely support Biden’s marijuana pardons

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