The chances of the United States military getting involved in a major war with a near-peer competitor are the highest they have been in 80 years. At the same time, the U.S. military is the smallest and most unprepared it has been to fight in a major conflict since the end of the Cold War, according to a bipartisan panel appointed by Congress.
The eight-member Commission on the National Defense Strategy just released an analysis on America’s National Defense Strategy from 2022. According to the report, the U.S. public is largely unaware of the dangers the country faces or the costs required to prepare for a global conflict.
The report said a bipartisan call to arms is necessary in order for the United States to make the changes and investments to adequately prepare.
Former California Rep. Jane Harman, D, chaired the commission. According to Harman, the country’s most recent National Defense Strategy was written before the war in Ukraine began. That means it doesn’t account for Russia’s growing relationships with China, North Korea and Iran. Now, instead of calling Russia an “acute threat,” the commission said Moscow poses a chronic threat to global peace and stability.
The commission also said China is the top pacing threat for the U.S. military, criticizing current and past administrations and congressional bodies for letting the U.S. military advantage in the Pacific slip away.
The report also offers descriptions of the current global climate and offers some solutions.
For starters, the report said the Pentagon needs to leave behind the Cold War-era construct of being ready to fight two wars against less-capable adversaries. Instead, the commission said the U.S. military should embrace the idea of a multiple theater force construct.
According to the commission, the threats posted by adversary nations are changing. For example, Russia is giving Iran nuclear know-how in exchange for drones.
Adversaries are working together in ways that they have not previously and the U.S. needs to adapt accordingly.
The commission recommends the Pentagon and lawmakers take an aggressive “more of everything” approach. In theory, combining the might of the U.S. military with the ingenuity of the tech sector will increase force readiness.
One example mentioned in the report was the Department of Defense’s Replicator initiative. Started by Deputy Defense Secretary Kathleen Hicks, the program fields thousands of low-cost attritable drones.
Some other straightforward recommendations include investing in U.S. shipbuilding, putting more submarines and uncrewed vessels in the Indo-Pacific, and building up more military facilities to reinforce ones already in the Indo-Pacific.
The commission called for a boost to the U.S. forward presence in Eastern Europe, complete with new headquarters and facilities able to support air defense, aviation units and more.
The report also calls out weakness in the U.S. Defense Industrial Base, saying the Pentagon needs to get rid of its outdated procurement process. In its place, the commission suggests that the Pentagon works more closely with non-traditional defense contractors and lessen the barriers to entry for many allied nations. The DOD would also need to fund the recapitalization of armories and invest in advanced manufacturing and further stockpiling of munitions.
Ambassador Eric Edelman — the vice chair on the commission — said the United States can’t confront the biggest threats with the smallest military in a generation, historically low defense spending and an atrophied industrial base.
According to Edelman “deterring [the United States’] adversaries from launching a disastrous war requires investment and demonstrating the ability to mobilize at wartime speed, not the pace of bureaucracy.”